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I can’t see the whole article, as it is subscription only (my apologies) but these three paras tell us all we need to know. The global economy really has to be growing at circa 3% p/a if it is to keep avoiding a financial crisis and potentially a broader socio-economic collapse.

They recently made their criteria more complex, but the IMF used to define a global recession as two quarters of growth lower than 3%. 0.7% growth would be bad news:

“The global economy faces a sharp slowdown as the coronavirus sends China into outright contraction and international trade grinds to a halt, economists have warned.

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World growth will crash to just 0.7pc in the first quarter of this year as a massive shutdown of Chinese industry sends shockwaves around the world, analysts at UBS said – a sharp cut from their previous prediction of 3.2pc annualised growth.

“This would represent the worst performance since the financial crisis. UBS now expects the Chinese economy to shrink by 1.5pc when compared to a year earlier, its first contraction for more than four decades.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/02/03/global-growth-forecasts-slashed-chinas-coronavirus-spreads-world/


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Coronavirus is very bad timing for Hong Kong:

The Hong Kong economy’s first recession in 10 years deepened in the fourth quarter of last year weighed down by often violent anti-government protests and the protracted trade war between the United States and China, advanced estimates showed on Monday.”

https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/hong-kong-fell-deeper-recession-2019-200203084830989.html


“Companies and governments borrow $118bn in busiest start to the year. …

Emerging-market governments and companies embarked on a record borrowing spree in January, hoping to lock in very low interest costs.”

https://www.ft.com/content/e2b2559c-467d-11ea-aee2-9ddbdc86190d


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The easing cycle at emerging market central banks continued unabated in January with policymakers continuing to join major central banks in efforts to shore up their economies.

“Interest rate moves by central banks across a group of 37 developing economies showed a net seven cuts in January after a net six reductions in December.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-emerging-rates-graphic/graphic-lower-and-lower-emerging-central-banks-cut-rates-for-12th-month-idUSKBN1ZX1F7


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As China continues to reel from the spreading coronavirus, the world is looking for a familiar entity to swoop in and save the day: a central bank, in this case the People’s Bank of China.

“This time, though, even big rate cuts and other forms of easing may not be enough.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/03/why-central-banks-may-not-be-able-to-save-china-from-the-coronavirus.html


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Trade and manufacturing were already in the doldrums before the coronavirus hit:

The semiconductor industry last year suffered its worst annual slump in almost two decades, hurt by a trade war between the largest chip producer, the U.S., and the largest consumer, China. Revenue fell 12% to $412 billion in 2019, the Semiconductor Industry Association said Monday in a statement.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-03/chip-industry-had-worst-sales-year-since-dot-com-bubble-burst


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Even as OPEC and Russia consider an emergency production cut, oil is tanking and the outlook for prices is getting dimmer.

“West Texas Intermediate crude futures were below $50 per barrel in late trading Monday, after closing at $50.11, a decline of 23.7% from its Jan. 8 intraday high of $65.65 per barrel.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/03/oil-bear-market-deepens-as-opec-talks-emergency-action-to-deal-with-coronavirus-crisis.html


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Prices of copper, a barometer for the health of the global economy, have dived more than 12% since mid-January, as the coronavirus outbreak pushed China to extend a shutdown in its manufacturing regions…

“Copper is used extensively in manufacturing and demand for the metal — dubbed Dr. Copper — is an indicator of the economy’s health. China is the world’s largest metals consumer.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/04/coronavirus-chinas-manufacturing-city-shutdown-copper-prices-dive.html


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A bellwether of the global shipping market has hit an all-time low as the spread of the coronavirus weighs on global trade.

“The fast-spreading virus and uncertainty around its impact on the world’s economy have rocked markets and sent commodities prices to multi-month lows in recent days.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/shipping-bellwether-hits-all-time-low-11580744101


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