“World trade was poised to post its first annual decline since the financial crisis at the end of 2019, according to a closely watched gauge of activity.
“The results offered the latest evidence that a tit-for-tat tariff dispute between the US and China has rippled through broader supply chains. Businesses and market watchers don’t expect a full recovery anytime soon.”
“For global business-cycle analysts, the 2.5%-3.5% growth band is considered the danger zone. When world output growth slips to the lower half of that range — as it did in 2019 — the risks of global recession need to be taken seriously…
“Downside risks are especially worrisome, because a 2.9% growth outcome for the world economy underscores the lack of a comfortable cushion in the event of a shock.”
“Housing markets across the world, from the U.K. to China to Australia, are losing steam, holding back prospects for the global economy that last year grew at its slowest rate since the financial crisis…
“A key catalyst is the global slowdown over the past two years that kept a lid on housing demand and home-price gains. In large cities, affordability constraints are deterring many would-be buyers, and foreigners’ appetite for overseas properties has cooled.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-risk-to-world-economy-synchronized-housing-slowdown-11580121001
“The Baltic Dry Index – which tracks rates for capesize, panamax and supramax vessels that ferry dry bulk commodities – is down a staggering 78 percent from highs in September…
“The index… is considered a valuable indicator of the stage of the global economy. The steep slide, therefore, is also being viewed as a sign of a global economic slowdown.”
“The global rush for safer assets [partly driven by fuels re the novel coronavirus] has fueled a huge jump in the world’s stockpile of negative-yielding bonds, snapping months of decline in the value of subzero debt…
“The resurgence is a potent reminder that the market distortions synonymous with loose monetary policies have not gone away.”
https://www.pionline.com/markets/worlds-pile-negative-debt-surges-most-2016
“Stocks and oil slumped and gold climbed on Monday as the rapid spread of Wuhan coronavirus spurred traders to seek haven assets…
“The problem is for most investors this is just not a risk event they are prepared for – a true black swan in the making,” one analyst said.”
“A global recession is coming. Analysts and economists had already spend much of 2019 predicting a downturn for this year. But with the added risk factor of a global pandemic, things could take a steep nosedive very quickly…
“If the Chinese government can’t get a handle on the coronavirus’ quickly, the virus’ spread could prove to be the straw that breaks the global economy’s back.”
https://www.ccn.com/a-global-recession-is-coming-if-china-fails-to-kill-coronavirus-spread/
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