“How will we remember the last 10 years? Above all, as a time of crises. During the 2010s, there have been crises of democracy and the economy; of the climate and poverty; of international relations and national identity; of privacy and technology. There were crises at the start of the decade, and there are crises now. Some of them are the same crises, unsolved. Others are like nothing we have experienced before. Some of them are welcome: old hierarchies collapsing. Others are catastrophes…
“As one of the New Optimists’ favourite sources, the website Our World in Data, had to admit this year: “In some aspects the data suggests the world is getting worse.”
“It could be a blip. The 2010s could be just a pause in humanity’s erratic upward progress. But there are signs that even Our World in Data doesn’t completely believe that. “Our world today,” it says, “is neither just nor sustainable.” Over the last 10 years, even some of humanity’s cheerleaders have started to lose faith…
“Global capitalism has yet to alter course, as growth slows and inequality grows. Trump’s presidency has yet to be judged by the electorate. Britain has yet to experience Boris Johnson’s equally risky brand of populism as a form of government, in any significant sense, rather than as simply a crude but effective new way of winning elections…
“The climate crisis is probably only just beginning… If you think the 2010s, our age of crises, have seen too much upheaveal – or if you think things haven’t been shaken up enough – just wait.”
“The [UK] economy was on track for its worst performance since the financial crisis at the start of the month as crippling political uncertainty combined with weak global growth sapped demand and stymied business deals…
“Growth in the manufacturing sector slowed more sharply than at any time in more than seven years, according to IHS Markit’s PMI survey of businesses.”
“The euro zone’s second-biggest economy will slow next year to 1.1% from an estimated 1.3% this year, the Bank of France said in its quarterly economic outlook…
“Although the French economy has proven more resilient in the current slowdown than countries like export-dependent Germany and Italy, it too is feeling the pinch from a down-shift in global growth in the face of trade tensions.”
“The manufacturing slowdown since the summer of 2018 has become a slump, the labour market shows first tentative bruises and, even worse, disruption in one of Germany’s key industries, automotives, do not bode well for the imminent future.
“In fact, there is a risk that the German economy is almost seamlessly moving from a golden decade into a lost decade.”
https://think.ing.com/articles/germany-entering-the-lost-decade/
“Worldwide economic growth is at its slowest pace since 2009 when the global financial crisis was in full swing.
“This represents another headwind in South Africa’s dismal growth story, which has already been hobbled by a litany of domestic errors and woes.”
“Amid worries over slowing global economic growth, central banks in the East African Community are adopting monetary easing policies, similar to their counterparts around the world.
“Reports show apex banks in the region have been lowering interest rates and cash reserve ratios as they try to stimulate economic growth through increased spending and private investment.”
“Lebanese security forces used tear gas, rubber bullets and water cannon to disperse anti-government protesters in central Beirut on Sunday night during the second day of violent protests that have wounded dozens of people…
“The reappointment of Hariri after weeks of political deadlock would likely further inflame a two-month old protest movement demanding an independent technocratic government.”
https://www.dw.com/en/lebanon-rocked-by-second-night-of-violent-unrest/a-51686574
“The United States is urging Iraq to take steps to help prevent bases where U.S. troops are stationed from being shelled amid the country’s mass anti-government protests…
“Last week, Esper warned that attacks by Iran-backed groups on bases hosting U.S. forces in Iraq were pushing all sides closer to an uncontrollable escalation.”
“An economist has warned that India’s slowdown is now directly affecting households in a big way, with 40,000 to 50,000 persons having forced to surrender their commercial vehicles till now due to non-payment of dues.
““The situation is very grim. Our data says that the number is around 40,000 to 50,000 across the country,” said SP Singh, senior fellow at Indian Foundation of Transport Research and Training.”
“Singapore‘s non-oil domestic exports continued to fall in November for the ninth consecutive month… Shipments were down 5.9 per cent last month, following a revised 12.5 per cent plunge in October, according to data released by Enterprise Singapore.”
“Hong Kong‘s economy ends the year wounded, with the chances for stabilization in 2020 hanging on whether future protests are peaceful or lapse back into violence.
“Economists forecast a 1.3% contraction for 2019 and predict year-on-year declines will continue in the first two quarters of 2020.”
“Six privately owned companies in one of China’s wealthiest provinces have defaulted on their debt or come perilously close in the last three months.
“With 68.1 billion yuan ($9.7 billion) in outstanding debt among those six companies alone, the distress in Shandong has rattled even seasoned investors.”
“Struggling to revive profits as low yields persist, a handful of troubled Japanese regional banks are wading deeper into riskier credits such as near-junk rated overseas bonds, according to a Bloomberg survey.”
“…a decade of easy auto credit has fueled concerns that U.S. households could be on the verge of yet another financing bubble, only a few years after many borrowers emerged from the worst foreclosure crisis since the Great Depression.
“Last month, a report from the Wall Street Journal highlighted how one 40-year-old electrician took out a $45,000 loan on a $27,000 Jeep Cherokee, while other lenders also have been loosening their underwriting standards.”
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-borrowers-are-getting-rejected-for-auto-loans-2019-12-16
“The Federal Reserve Bank of New York added $86.4 billion in liquidity to financial markets. In two operations carried out Monday, the Fed injected $36.4 billion in overnight liquidity and $50 billion in 32-day liquidity extending into the coming New Year.”
“It’s becoming increasingly apparent that the negative interest rates introduced in several countries in the wake of the global financial crisis are trashing bank profitability.
“Less obvious, though perhaps more crucial for society as a whole, are their debilitating impact on pension plans.”
“Conventional monetary policy stimulation works through lower policy interest rates, which help boost demand by lowering the cost of borrowing.
“Given today’s low policy rates, if a recession were to occur in the near term and G4 central banks were to lower rates by their average recessionary cuts since 1960, policy rates would become deeply negative.”
https://www.top1000funds.com/2019/12/central-banks-limited-in-next-downturn/
“Many countries are facing structural uncertainties that could have far-reaching, systemic implications for markets and the global economy… questions [will be raised] about the functioning and resilience of the global economy and markets…
“The main worry – one that too few market participants have spotted – is that over the next five years, global economic and market conditions may need to deteriorate nearer to crisis levels before national, regional, and multilateral political systems muster an adequate response.”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/dec/16/global-economy-trade-growth
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