“Well it is truly remarkable. Not so much the result of the election, which is surprising enough. But, rather, the fact that following the “Brexit election”, one in which traditional party loyalties seem to have been stretched to breaking point by the leave-remain divide, we emerge not knowing what kind of Brexit the prime minister intends to deliver…
“Departure itself will be a seismic event….
“The kind of bare bones Free Trade Agreement envisaged by some in the Conservative party would have profound consequences for manufacturing jobs. Industry bodies have not been slow to express their concerns.
“In mid-October, the aerospace, automotive, chemicals, food and drink and pharmaceutical industries wrote to the government to warn that the kind of relationship with the EU that the government seemed to be contemplating could pose a “serious risk to manufacturing competitiveness”. Meanwhile, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders has argued that a WTO exit would lead to UK car production falling by more than a third.
“The stakes, in other words, could hardly be higher.”
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/13/boris-johnson-brexit-leave-eu
“Germany’s worst manufacturing downturn in a decade is set to drag on economic growth at least through 2020 as domestic demand will increasingly be hurt by a weakening labor market, according to the latest projections by the country’s central bank.”
“Forecasts for South African growth were slashed in a Reuters poll of economists taken as rolling power shortages got worse, suggesting the poll’s median 40% chance the country has sunk into a recession may be too low…
“Barclays analysts wrote that they see clear downside risks in South Africa, given the ongoing decline in the South African Reserve Bank’s leading indicator for economic activity.”
“Algeria “is on course for a full-blown economic crisis in less than two years,” Anthony Skinner, Middle East and North Africa director at consultancy Verisk Maplecroft, wrote in a report earlier this year.
“”The pace at which Algeria is burning through its foreign exchange reserves is not sustainable.””
“Ratings agency Fitch cut Lebanon‘s credit rating for a third time in a year on Thursday, warning it now expects the crisis-hit country to restructure or default on its debt…
“Discontent with economic mismanagement and corruption in Lebanon exploded into nationwide protests starting in October.”
https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/lebanon-restructure-default-debt-warns-fitch-191212154216032.html
“Now Lebanon’s crisis is rippling across the border into Syria. Their economies have long been linked…”
“India’s economy continued to report deepening signs of a slowdown with October factory production figures contracting as much as 3.8%, dragged by manufacturing which shrank 2.1% as well as power and mining, which declined even more.
“Government data also showed retail inflation shot up to a 40-month high of 5.54% in November.”
“A a severe slump [has] taken hold in India’s gems and jewellery industry, a key sector of the economy employing almost 5 million workers and contributing about 7% of India’s gross domestic product.
“It’s the latest pillar of the economy to wobble, as a funding crisis hits everyone from carmakers to retailers.”
“Onion prices in [India] have soared tenfold this year, sparking a nationwide outcry, questions in parliament, a spate of bizarre onion-related crime and dozens of viral memes as the outraged citizens of the world’s second most populous nation find themselves unable to afford their staple food.”
“Like many of his colleagues, Kevin Wong (not his real name) had been politically apathetic until teargas and a hail of rubber bullets fired a short distance from his downtown Hong Kong accountancy firm made him join an anti-government protest movement and reconsider his future in Asia’s once glittering financial hub.”
“Reports that the US and China have reached an initial trade deal were met with silence in Beijing where officials declined to confirm whether an agreement had been made.
“Asked about the status of the trade talks during a daily briefing on Friday, the Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying reiterated that Beijing was committed to resolving outstanding issues but that a deal had to be mutually beneficial.”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/dec/12/us-china-trade-deal-in-principle-tariffs
“A key economic conference presided over by Chinese President Xi Jinping has called for “contingency plans” to deal with the daunting economic slowdown of the world’s second largest economy accentuated by the 18-month long trade with war with the US.”
“Car sales in China are set to slump for a third year running, indicating that the industry may already have hit “peak car” in an alarming development for motor manufacturers… Luo Lei of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) warned that there are still no signs of recovery in the market as the forecast was unveiled.
“The falls …are part of a worldwide trend…”
“U.S. business debt exceeded that of households for the first time since 1991, a potential warning sign for the economy as corporate investment softens. …
“The Fed’s Powell has said corporate leverage ‘historically high’.”
“The $2.2 trillion repurchase agreement market – part of the inner workings of the U.S. financial system – is facing what could be another strain as the year comes to a close. That could have wider implications than just Wall Street.
“Whether [the Fed’s intervention] will be enough to offset the traditional year-end strains will be tested next week, when companies will again face tax obligations while $78 billion in Treasury supply will also need to be settled. At the year-end there is also typically a reluctance by banks and fund managers to lend, which can leave borrowers struggling to raise cash.”
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