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“…The global economy is showing few signs of rebounding from its slowdown, as fresh figures indicate that China continues to cool and Germany and Japan are close to stagnation.

“Talks between the U.S. and China on resolving their trade dispute and signs that the U.K. may leave the European Union on agreed terms have eased fears of a further sharp slide in global growth. But recent economic data suggest the diminished risk of a major rupture in the world trade system has yet to lift the outlook for 2020.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/growth-in-economic-powerhouses-starts-to-diverge-11573730840


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“With the –5.9% decline in October, following the string of declines in May through September (ranging from -3.0% to -6.0%), we repeat our message from the previous five months:

“…the shipments index has gone from “warning of a potential slowdown” to “signaling an economic contraction.””

https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economics/recession-warning-freight-volumes-negative-yoy-for-11th-straight-month-0ZOT5dLcwE6t7RTXcErjWA/


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“Amid a roaring stock market and ever-increasing levels of corporate and government debt, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Thursday he does not see signs of bubbles brewing or immediate dangers being posed by trillion-dollar deficits.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/14/powell-no-day-of-reckoning-coming-for-the-us-anytime-soon.html


“Mexico’s central bank cut the benchmark interest rate in a split vote among board members after inflation slowed to target and growth stumbled.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-14/mexico-cuts-key-rate-third-straight-time-as-consumer-prices-ease


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“Chile’s peso slid to a new historic low against the U.S. dollar on Thursday despite intervention by the country’s central bank a day earlier, a sign of continuing concern over a deepening economic crisis.

“Weeks of protests that have left at least 20 people dead and wrought billions of dollars in damages prompted Chile’s central bank on Wednesday to inject $4 billion…”

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/chiles-peso-hits-new-historic-low-despite-central-bank-intervention-2019-11-14


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“Supporters of Bolivia’s former president Evo Morales have called for a civil war as those loyal to him clashed with police hours after the interim president was sworn in to office.

“Violent clashes erupted between Morales loyalists and police in Bolivia’s capital La Paz that raged well into the night.”

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7683999/Power-struggle-Bolivia-A-ez-home-vs-Morales-exile.html


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“According to data released this week, the Eurozone hovers over the prospect of a recession, and there is no policy consensus over how to react…

“Austria, Germany, and the Netherlands oppose the ECB’s bond-buying program, which has subdued yields, easing the pressure on heavily indebted economies, such as Italy.”

https://www.neweurope.eu/article/eurozone-edging-towards-recession-without-policy-response-consensus/


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“Lebanon’s Defense Minister said on Thursday the country was in a “very dangerous situation” and compared street unrest of recent days to the start of 1975-90 civil war…

“One month after the start of nationwide protests, Lebanon is in serious political and economic trouble with no indication of its leaders agreeing on a new government… “

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-lebanon-protests/lebanons-crisis-is-dangerous-evokes-start-of-civil-war-defense-minister-idUSKBN1XO1YK


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“Thousands of supporters reached the [Pakistani] capital Islamabad on Oct. 31, holding a two-week sit-in on the city’s main highway.

“Rehman ordered them to disperse across the country on Wednesday to cripple key roads, in what he called ‘Plan B’ to topple Khan over allegations of voter fraud and economic mismanagement – claims he denies.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-pakistan-protests/pakistan-protests-block-roads-but-fail-to-oust-prime-minister-idUSKBN1XO26N


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“Hong Kong confirmed on Friday its economy plunged into its first recession in a decade in the third quarter, weighed down by increasingly violent anti-government protests and the escalating U.S.-China trade war…

“Tourists are cancelling bookings, retailers are reeling from a sharp drop in sales and the stock market is faltering.”

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-economy-gdp-final/hong-kong-third-quarter-gdp-shrinks-3-2-confirms-depth-of-recession-idUKKBN1XP0S5


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“The hope that China’s economy had put the worst behind it was dashed on Thursday by a series of disappointing economic figures that rounded off a miserable week for policymakers in Beijing.”

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3037731/china-yet-hit-bottom-economic-downturn-plumbed-new-depths


“China’s central bank extended 200 billion yuan (£22 billion) through its medium-term lending facility on Friday, the second time it has done so this month, while keeping the lending rate unchanged.”

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-china-economy-mlf/china-central-bank-injects-200-billion-yuan-to-boost-liquidity-keeps-rate-unchanged-idUKKBN1XP0CB


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“…emerging markets now take a far bigger share of total global debt than they did even before the Asian crisis.

“Tightening liquidity in emerging markets, along with a strong dollar and weak emerging currencies, therefore combine to spell potential serious problems, particularly if the trade war cannot be steered to a safe conclusion.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2019-11-15/china-s-fear-of-minsky-moment-is-key-for-emerging-markets


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“Shinzo Abe may be about to become Japan’s longest-serving prime minister, but he also looks set to lead the world’s third-largest economy into a downturn, with little sign that his much-vaunted “Abenomics” stimulus policies will help turn things around.”

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-japan-abe-economy-analysis/japan-may-slide-toward-recession-as-abenomics-impact-fades-idUKKBN1XO2YN


“The vulnerability of global growth to trade conflicts and dependence on U.S. momentum were exposed as Asia’s biggest economies faltered and Germany barely dodged a recession.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-14/global-economy-on-thin-ice-with-frail-trio-from-china-to-germany


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How will foreign nations react to this loss of income and who are the most dependent nations on Oil revenues?

“… the economic, social and future strains this creates for many nations become even more severe – at a time when an economic contraction is taking place. This type of commodity price collapse could lead the world into a chaotic economic mess if it is prolonged.”

http://marketoracle.co.uk/Article66121.html


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“Two decades ago, total government debt was estimated to sit at $20 trillion. Since then, according to the latest figures by the IMF, the number has ballooned to $69.3 trillion with a debt to GDP ratio of 82% — the highest totals in human history.”

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/69-trillion-of-world-debt-in-one-infographic/


“Despite the sell-off in the bond market since September, yields are still showing caution….

“The Institute of International Finance came out with its quarterly look at the mountain of global debt, concluding that it rose by about $7 trillion in the first half of the year to a record of just more than $250 trillion.

“That increase is more double the $3.3 trillion expansion for all of last year. It pegs global debt, which it sees expanding to $255 trillion by the end of the year, at a lofty 320% of global GDP. It’s no surprise that the world is awash in debt, but yields show there seems to be a dearth of it for the public because of massive purchases by central banks.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-11-14/bonds-aren-t-believers-in-a-synchronized-upswing?srnd=economics-vp


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