“…what’s particularly worrying about this economic slowdown is that the recovery from the global financial crisis is not finished…
“If there was a debt crisis, that would likely tip an economy into recession.
“As economic growth slows, it could become harder for firms and households to repay the debt that they borrowed. It’s not dissimilar for governments.
“As income growth slows, debt become less manageable. That could affect banks as the monies that they lent may not be repaid which weakens their balance sheet.
“So, a slowdown that triggers a debt crisis could then become a recession or worse.”
It’s as bad a time for the global economy as any since the end of the last recession, according to two separate surveys released on Monday.“
“The IHS Markit global business outlook—which surveys 12,000 companies three times a year—fell to the worst level since 2009, when data was first collected.
“The Ifo world economic outlook, which surveys 1,230 people in 117 countries, fell in the fourth quarter to the worst level since the second quarter of 2009.”
“65% of [US] respondents to a recent CNBC + Acorns Invest in You survey on voter attitudes toward money and the economy think a recession is likely next year.
“What’s more, a large percentage of those are taking steps to prepare. Nearly half of those polled are paying down debt, 45% are cutting household spending, and over a third are putting money in an emergency fund.”
“Auto dealers, car buyers and vehicle salespeople are treating cars a lot like houses during the last financial crisis, piling on debt to the point where the debt often exceeds the car’s value.
“It’s a phenomenon known as being underwater — or negative equity — and it can leave car owners trapped, Wall Street Journal reported.”
“The companies that provide sand for hydraulic fracturing operations are the latest casualties of shale industry cutbacks as low oil prices and demands for higher investor returns stunt drilling activity.
““If you look at Permian frack sand prices, we estimate they are down about 80% from the peak,” he added in an interview on Monday, noting that at least two mines in West Texas have closed.”
“More than 620,000 [UK] manufacturing jobs have been lost since the financial crash a decade ago, a study suggests. The GMB union said its research showed a fall of 17 per cent since 2007, when the UK supported 3.5 million permanent and temporary manufacturing jobs.”
“Britain’s economy has grown at the slowest annual rate in almost a decade, according to official figures. Year-on-year growth in the three months to end-September slowed to 1% from 1.3% in the second quarter, the Office for National Statistics said.
“An ONS spokesman said: “Looking at the picture over the last year, growth slowed to its lowest rate in almost a decade.””
“Spain has suffered its most fragmented and polarised election result since returning to democracy in the late 1970s after holding its fourth general election in four years last weekend.
“The leader of Spain’s pro-market Ciudadanos party resigned after seeing its vote share crumble, while the hard-Right Vox party doubled its seat tally…”
“Heralded by Zimbabwe’s central bank and its President Emmerson Mnangagwa as the answer to an acute cash shortage that has hamstrung the country’s economy, new low-denomination banknotes were due to enter circulation on Monday.
“But by noon they had seemingly failed to arrive.”
“Iraqi protesters in Maysan province have blocked roads leading to Al-Shayib border crossing with Iran and one of the province’s largest oil fields, a security source said yesterday.
“Anadolu Agency quoted the source as saying that the protesters have closed the roads leading to the border crossing linking the province of Maysan and Iran, and set up roadblocks and set tyres on fire.”
“Thousands of students at one of India’s most prestigious universities have clashed with police, amid massive protests over a hostel fee hike.
“Police used water canons against students from Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU) after they broke through barricades and surged forward.”
“The main reason you can’t trust China’s national GDP statistics is that you can’t trust regional Chinese statistics.
“The leaders of China’s 32 regions are under heavy pressure to meet growth targets set by the national government, and local statistical agencies fudge the numbers to hit those targets. The central government acknowledges this…”
“A citywide anti-government protest plunged Hong Kong into transport chaos throughout Monday, crippling metro, bus and cross-border services and making it difficult for millions of commuters to get home after work.
“The turmoil was expected to persist on Tuesday as defiant protesters vowed to keep fighting…”
“The Chilean government has agreed to write a new constitution to replace one dating back to the Pinochet dictatorship, a central demand of protesters who have taken to the streets in recent weeks…
“The document would be put to a public referendum.”
“Bolivia’s ousted president Evo Morales was flying to political asylum in Mexico on Monday night, the latest step the once-beloved leader’s rapid fall, while military and police deployed in the streets of La Paz to quell violence.
“Morales, who was the country’s first indigenous president, boarded a Mexican government plane from the central Bolivian town of Chimore…”
“Ratings agency Moody’s has issued a debt downgrade warning to the entire world on fears that political turmoil from Westminster to Hong Kong poses a threat to the economy.
“It cut its global sovereign outlook to “negative” from “stable” for 2020, cautioning that “disruptive and unpredictable” politics was worsening the slowdown in growth.”
“…the [stock] market rallies appear to be at odds with the fundamentals and would seem to have more to do with liquidity, giving rise to a ‘disconnect’ whereby markets ‘melt up’ seemingly regardless of the economic landscape.
“This can only continue if the fundamental news begins to get better, catching up with the positive market trends. So far there are few signs that this is happening and with risks over trade, Brexit and geopolitics having not gone away, it is probably wise to view such a ‘disconnect’ cautiously.”
“Investment firm Schroders estimates global economic losses from climate change could reach $23 trillion per year in the long term if action isn’t taken.
“That’s almost four times the impact of the 2008 financial crisis.”