“…within 20 years, the US had made up for all the growth lost by the Great Depression and was back on the 2 per cent trend line started in 1900.
“Yet if you try to track the same sort of bounceback in the American economy from 2008, you quickly work out there’s no chance the US is going to make the same sort of recovery as it did in the wake of the Great Depression.
It [is] time to admit the world is in the “Great Stagnation”…
“China-focused managers suffered their worst year since the financial crisis in 2018 as equity markets were hit by trade war concerns and big falls for technology.”
https://www.ft.com/content/94891341-cfb6-45d7-89eb-e32f9afc51c7
“China’s third-quarter slowdown continued into October…
“Bloomberg Economics’ gauge aggregating the earliest available indicators from financial markets and businesses showed the economy cooling for a sixth month, with indicators for trade, factory prices, iron ore and copper all worsening.”
“Soaring wholesale meat prices in China sparked by the African swine fever epidemic are threatening a crisis in the nation’s food retail sector, which has struggled to pass on the bulk of the increases to consumers.
“Pork prices were nearly 159 per cent higher in October than a year earlier, more than double the retail price rise of nearly 73 per cent…”
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/014a0f72-f642-11e9-a79c-bc9acae3b654
“Profits at Chinese industrial enterprises continued to contract as the economy slows and factory deflation deepens.
“Industrial profits dropped 5.3% in September… growing deflationary pressure continued to weigh on corporate profits and their debt servicing ability.
“Companies’ earning power will likely remain depressed in the coming month amid weak demand.”
“Hong Kong’s financial secretary has said the region is in recession after more than five months of anti-government protests, and said it was unlikely to achieve annual economic growth this year.
““The blow to our economy is comprehensive,” Paul Chan said in a blog post on Sunday, adding that figures out on Thursday would show two successive quarters of contraction – the technical definition of a recession.”
“…this year, traders complain, the festive shopping season has been gloomy, with sales falling precipitously as a deepening economic slowdown hurts ordinary Indians.
Hit by lay-offs, pay cuts and reduced earnings, anxious consumers are tightening their belts… Weak consumer demand is fuelling a vicious downward spiral.”
https://www.ft.com/content/798795ce-f4f6-11e9-b018-3ef8794b17c6
“Food, electricity and gas prices have risen sharply as growth grinds to a nine-year low, bruising the middle class.
““The people of Pakistan are fed up with this government,” said Noor Ahmad Kakar, a 45-year-old supporter of Mr Rehman who travelled from the south-west province of Balochistan to Islamabad for the protest. “Inflation has never been higher and people don’t have jobs.””
https://www.ft.com/content/98c4bf5a-f6bf-11e9-a79c-bc9acae3b654
“Iran would need oil priced at $194.6 a barrel to balance its budget next year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said… On Friday, international benchmark Brent crude closed trading at just above $62 a barrel.”
“At least 67 people have been killed during two days of protest in Iraq, after clashes between demonstrators, security forces and militia groups. Hundreds more people were injured in what are the second wave of protests in October.
“The protesters, mainly unemployed young men, are calling for work, better public services and an end to corruption in their country.”
“Lebanon’s protesters have demonstrated against corruption and the political elite.
“Now protest leaders say the country faces a historic opportunity for change, but it is also dangerous.”
https://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2019/10/26/lebanon-protests-wedeman-pkg-vpx.cnn
“At least 67 people have been killed and more than 200 injured in protests in Ethiopia over the last few days, the police commissioner for the Oromia region told CNN on Saturday.
“Nineteen people were killed in direct clashes with security forces, Kefyalew Tefera said, while the others were killed in clashes between supporters of Prime Minister and Nobel Peace Prize winner Abiy Ahmed and supporters of Jawar Mohammed, an independent media owner and a prominent critic of the premier.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/10/26/africa/ethiopia-clashes-intl/index.html
“Chile’s President Sebastian Piñera has dismissed his whole cabinet in order to form a new government and introduce social reforms demanded by protesters…
“More than a million people joined a peaceful rally on Friday in the capital Santiago, calling for social justice. Mr Piñera said he had heard the demands from the streets.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-50197673
“Argentina’s Peronists have swept back into power, electing Alberto Fernandez president in an election result that shifts the country firmly back toward the left amid an economic crisis.
“Peronist had 47.79% of the vote, ahead of conservative incumbent Mauricio Macri’s 40.71%, with more than 90% of ballots counted, putting the center-left challenger over the 45% threshold to avoid a runoff and win the election outright.”
“Hundreds of thousands of Catalans have marched peacefully through Barcelona in support of calls to free jailed separatist leaders, after the region’s mayors demanded it be allowed to map out its own political future.
“The Catalan capital has been convulsed by almost two weeks of daily demonstrations…”
“For the past year, business leaders and policymakers in central Europe have been wondering how long they can defy gravity.
The region’s economies spent the last few years in the grip of a sustained boom… but since last autumn Germany — the biggest trading partner for much of central Europe — has been sliding towards recession, and many fear a knock-on effect.”
https://www.ft.com/content/11e93dc8-ea15-11e9-a240-3b065ef5fc55
“The largest banking lenders to the oil and gas sector are becoming more cautious, marking down their expectations for oil and gas prices that underpin loans in a move expected to put further financial stress on struggling producers, industry and banking sources said.”
“For years, Australian consumers have been twitchy. With good reason. A lethal combination of soaring household debt, overpriced real estate and painfully weak wages have seen households slam the brakes on spending.
“Now, the pessimism is spreading to the business world and to financial markets.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-28/forces-uniting-australia-and-the-usa-are-the-market/11644400
“For now, the world remains anaesthetised by waves of monetary easing, which shored up financial institutions against systemic failure 10 years ago. It has also, more recently, dulled the pain of trade wars.
“But it cannot conceal the harm being done to the vital organs of finance… some measures designed to shore up big banks have pushed borrowers into the hands of unsafe lenders.”
Read the previous ‘Economic’ thread here and visit my Patreon page here.
