“A steeper decline in global economic growth still more likely than a synchronized recovery, even as multiple central banks dole out rounds of monetary easing, according to economists polled by Reuters in recent weeks.
“While a reprieve from escalating U.S.-China trade tensions has pushed stocks back near record highs, a record $17 trillion of bonds have negative yields and a key market signal of U.S. recession is still flashing red.
“After the European Central Bank cut its deposit rate further into negative territory and announced it would resume its asset purchases, the Bank of Japan – which has essentially been running easy policy for two decades – and the Federal Reserve are due to cut rates again as early as next week.”
“Orders to U.S. factories for big-ticket manufactured goods tumbled in September… The declines underscored the troubles manufacturing is having in the face of a global slowdown and trade war uncertainty.
“The Commerce Department said Thursday that orders for durable goods dropped 1.1% in September…”
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/24/us-durable-goods-orders—september-2019.html
“Barclays reported a fall in profits of more than 80% in the third quarter as its chief executive, Jes Staley, warned of the impact of the slowing global economy on the year ahead.
““We acknowledge that the outlook for next year is unquestionably more challenging now than it appeared a year ago, in particular given the uncertainty around the UK economy and the interest rate environment,” Staley said.”
“European manufacturers have started on the steepest round of job cuts since 2013, according to new figures that show near-stagnant economies across the eurozone…
“Manufacturing showed a ninth straight month of contraction, with its PMI figure unchanged from September at 45.7, a seven-year low and below expectations. Germany’s economy fared worse with another month of declining business activity…”
“From Sydney to Seoul, central banks hope to stay orthodox…
“A trio of central banks that weathered the global financial crisis without having to resort to unorthodox measures now confront the prospect that they might have little alternative if their economies get any worse.”
“Slowing sales have coincided with a loss of momentum across [China’s] economy, with the purchasing managers’ index for manufacturing trending lower since May 2018, data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows.
“Slowing sales have been both a symptom and a contributory factor to the wider economic slowdown as consumers become more cautious about buying expensive items and automakers respond by cutting output.”
“One of China’s largest energy companies [Sinopec], is facing a tough outlook. The slowdown in global economic growth in general and China, in particular, will hurt the performance of the company’s downstream business.
“The demand for oil products in the country is waning. The declining levels of vehicle sales could lead to a drop in diesel and gasoline consumption.”
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4298893-sinopec-economic-slowdown-hits-chinas-energy-giant
“Avowed enemies since [Japan] colonised the Korean peninsula from 1910 to 1945, relations between the two this year deteriorated to their lowest in decades after South Korea’s top court ordered large Japanese companies to compensate wartime forced labourers.
“The Japanese government retaliated by banning the export of key chipmaking, display screen and semiconductor materials…”
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/comment/2019/10/24/japan-s-new-worry-its-very-own-trade-war/
“Japanese banks, which have been rapidly accumulating bundled corporate loans abroad, are vulnerable to a steep drop in prices if the global economy deteriorates, the central bank has warned…
“Japanese banks now own about 15 percent of outstanding CLOs globally, the BOJ said.”
“South African airport owner, Airports Company South Africa, has banned Air Zimbabwe from its airport at Johannesburg because of unpaid airport fees.
“The amount owed is not known but the airport operator had been requiring the Zimbabwean flag carrier to settle its tab on a weekly basis. It seems Air Zimbabwe has been unable or unwilling to meet this obligation.”
https://simpleflying.com/air-zimbabwe-south-africa-debt/
“Tens of thousands of protestors marched in the Guinean capital of Conakry on Thursday in the latest round of demonstrations against President Alpha Conde, accused of trying to circumvent a bar on a third term in office.
“The march — which organisers claimed to have a million participants, a figure that could not be verified independently — unfolded peacefully after previous protests that led to deadly clashes, an AFP reporter saw.”
https://www.france24.com/en/20191024-tens-of-thousands-join-new-guinea-protests
“Anti-government rallies have renewed across Iraq, the second phase of protests that turned deadly earlier this month and which could balloon after the endorsement of populist cleric Moqtada al-Sadr.
“Iraq was rocked by demonstrations in early October, first denouncing corruption and unemployment before evolving into calls for an overhaul of the political system.”
https://www.france24.com/en/20191025-iraq-braces-for-fresh-anti-government-protests-after-bloodshed
“Tanks on the streets in Chile. Barricades and bloodshed in Bolivia. Weeks of unrest that have pushed Haiti to the brink and forced Ecuador’s president to relocate his government.
““This is a social revolution,” said Andrea Lyn, a 61-year-old actor who took to the streets of Santiago this week. “It is us saying: no more.””
“[Shadow banking, which is less well-regulated than banking and therefore riskier] is… rapidly — total lending to non-bank financial institutions rose by $172bn in the past year, and now stands at $7tn.
“It is also coming from banks in regions starved of yield.”
https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2019/10/24/1571906229000/The-global-boom-in–non-bank-finance/
“Oil prices received a jolt mid-week on rumors that OPEC+ might cut deeper and also because of a surprise drawdown in EIA inventory data. Nevertheless, economic cracks continue to dominate the narrative…
“…the malaise is a global phenomenon.”
Read the previous ‘Economic’ thread here and visit my Patreon page here.
