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“Manufacturing activity is contracting across advanced economies, according to a raft of data released on Tuesday that pointed to the impact of US President Donald Trump’s trade policies [this is the orthodox and superficial analysis of the situation].

“In the US, a key indicator measuring activity recorded its lowest level in more than a decade for September, while global data showed the sector was feeling the chill wind of recession amid fears that trade tensions will escalate further.

“Output this summer was lower than a year earlier across all 36 advanced economies and sentiment indicators show that it is the most geographically widespread manufacturing downturn for seven years.

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“The global purchasing managers’ index in September recorded its fifth month below the 50 mark, the level that divides expansion from contraction. That was the longest period that indicator has been so low since 2012.

“The PMI for the eurozone fell to 45.7 last month, down from 47 in August and its lowest reading since October 2012. The Institute for Supply Management index of US manufacturing activity fell much more than expected to 47.8, down from 49.1 in August, to its worst since June 2009.”

https://www.ft.com/content/419b61fe-e457-11e9-b112-9624ec9edc59


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“Car loans that are increasingly stretched out are a pronounced sign that some American middle class buyers can’t afford a middle-class lifestyle.

“Incomes have risen at a sluggish pace in the past decade, but car prices have grown rapidly. New technological and safety features, such as larger and more sophisticated multimedia displays, have made even the most basic cars more expensive.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-seven-year-auto-loan-americas-middle-class-cant-afford-their-cars-11569941215


“Canada’s economy is poised to grow at modest rate, but will face an environment “riddled with risks” from ongoing geopolitical and trade frictions, a new report from Deloitte Canada states.”

https://business.financialpost.com/news/riddled-with-risk-canadas-economic-growth-threatened-by-geopolitical-threats-report-says


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“Boris Johnson will lay down a “take it or leave it” ultimatum to Brussels on Wednesday, warning he will take the UK out of the European Union without a deal if it is rejected.

“If the EU is unwilling to “engage” with the final offer, there will be no further negotiation and Britain will leave without a deal in 29 days’ time on 31 October, said Downing Street.”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-deal-boris-johnson-eu-leave-irish-border-plan-latest-a9128721.html


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“The European Central Bank was dealt another blow in its battle to stop the eurozone economy sliding into deflation after the consumer price index sank below 1pc for the first time in three years.

“The huge task facing incoming ECB president Christine Lagarde to tackle the region’s inflation woes was highlighted by CPI unexpectedly dropping to 0.9pc.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/10/01/ecb-losing-battle-revive-inflation-cpi-slips-1pc-first-time/


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“A shortage of US dollars is forcing Lebanese authorities to work on new financial instruments and trade mechanisms to import wheat, medicine and fuel, triggering internal tensions and a confidence crisis.

“Ali Yaacoub, secretary general of the small El-Nahj party, says that Lebanon is acccumulating more and more debt each year, and that its dollar reserves are “basically over.””

https://www.dw.com/en/lebanon-faces-race-against-time-to-avoid-financial-collapse/a-50655866


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“Zimbabwe’s President Emmerson Mnangagwa has pleaded for time and patience to bring the country’s economy back from the “dead”, as his government faces blame for surging inflation that evokes dark days under late former leader Robert Mugabe.”

https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/economic-crisis-deepens-zimbabwe-president-pleads-patience-191001133947141.html


“South Africa’s debt to GDP ratio is fast approaching the 60% seen as a red line by ratings agencies, while interest payments on outstanding debt regularly outpace key spending such as infrastructure and health.”

https://uk.reuters.com/article/safrica-cenbank/update-1-safrica-to-pay-more-for-debt-until-fiscal-problems-addressed-central-bank-idUKL5N26M5NU


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“The outlook for the world economy, including Australia’s, is looking more pessimistic as China’s economic growth continues to slow down.”

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-02/fitch-downgrade-australia-economy-global-recession-rabobank/11567246


“Emerging market policymakers slashed interest rates further in September, taking their lead from major central banks and joining in efforts to shore up their economies.”

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-emerging-rates-graphic/down-is-the-only-way-emerging-central-banks-deliver-more-rate-cuts-idUKKBN1WG3Y2


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“Heading into October, it was clear Federal Reserve officials would face a difficult decision at their meeting at the end of the month. Just one day into October, the challenges have already become even more intense.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-10-01/fed-has-no-choice-but-to-tackle-both-repo-and-recession


“World trade flows are set to increase at the weakest pace since the global financial crisis in 2019 as tariffs rise and the global economy cools, the World Trade Organization said Tuesday.”

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wto-says-trade-flow-growth-to-be-slowest-since-financial-crisis-2019-10-01


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