“Weaker growth in both advanced and developing countries means the possibility of a global recession in 2020 is a clear and present danger, the UN has warned.
“In a flagship report, the UN’s trade and development body, Unctad, said 2019 will endure the weakest expansion in a decade and there was a risk of the slowdown turning into outright contraction next year.
“The UN said warning lights were flashing around trade wars, currency gyrations, the possibility of a no-deal Brexit and movements in long-term interest rates but there was little sign that policymakers were prepared for the coming storm.”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/sep/25/global-recession-a-serious-danger-in-2020-says-un
“U.S. President Donald Trump warned on Wednesday that an impeachment inquiry against him could derail congressional approval of a North America trade pact, dragging down Mexico’s peso and stock market as investors fled riskier assets.”
“It was a familiar scene for Argentines. As a financial crisis engulfing the country entered its fourth week in early September, residents were lining up at banks to withdraw dollars from their accounts, hoping to keep their savings safe.
“They had yanked close to $6 billion when President Mauricio Macri ‘s government took emergency measures…”
“…the [UK] government’s top legal brain unleashed an unfettered attack on parliament, working himself into a frenzy as he raged against the “spineless” Labour frontbench and “cowardly” MPs for refusing to grant the prime minister an election.
“This parliament is a disgrace,” he boomed to the jeering of opposition MPs. “This parliament is a dead parliament. It should no longer sit, It has no moral right to sit on these green benches.””
https://news.sky.com/story/fury-and-mistrust-as-the-brexit-pressure-cooker-blows-its-top-11819619
“German export expectations in September fell to their lowest level since 2009, the Ifo institute said on Wednesday, in the latest sign that waning foreign demand and Brexit uncertainty are pushing Europe’s largest economy into recession.
“The export-reliant economy is suffering from slower global growth and business uncertainty…”
“The attacks on Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities delivered a shock to the kingdom at a moment of economic fragility, with its attempts to jump-start nonoil industries struggling and foreign investment down.
“Even before the Sept. 14 attacks took out half the country’s oil production, nonoil exports were trending down in almost every month this year, according to Saudi bank Jadwa Investment.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/attacks-on-oil-facilities-threaten-fragile-saudi-economy-11569427859
“Saudi Arabia’s consumer price index recorded a 1.1 percent year-on-year decrease last month, pushing the kingdom into the eighth consecutive month of deflation.
“While the general index edged slightly higher on a monthly basis, to 106.1 in August from 106 in July, it dropped by 1.1 percent from 107.3 in comparison to the same month last year, the latest figures released by the Saudi General Authority for Statistics showed.”
“India’s economic growth showed little signs of a recovery from a six-year-low, with investment and consumption activity in August remaining fairly subdued.”
“[China’s] official data paints an increasingly cloudy outlook. Industrial output is growing at its weakest pace since 2002, and retail sales are slowing… The deadly swine fever has placed an additional drag on the Chinese economy over the past year…
“”The price of pork has almost doubled,” said the Peterson Institute’s Hufbauer, adding that this was “very painful for low income Chinese.””
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49791721
“A record pace of defaults hit China’s domestic bonds this year. In 2020, it could be the offshore market’s turn. That’s because of a looming wall of dollar debt, issued by now-stressed borrowers, that comes to maturity. There’s $8.6 billion of offshore bonds coming due next year that currently have at least 15% yields — classifying them as stressed…
“Put another way, nearly 40% of total outstanding corporate dollar bonds from China’s most troubled companies is due next year.”
“Singapore’s factory output plunged by 8 per cent year on year in August, extending the Republic’s manufacturing decline into its fourth month and proving July’s reprieve short-lived.
“Industrial production was dragged down by the struggling electronics sector, according to statistics released by the Economic Development Board on Thursday.”
“While [Japan’s] government has introduced temporary measures, such as a point reward program for cashless payments, to encourage consumption alongside a push toward a cashless society, they are just stopgap measures and too complicated to substantially absorb the shock stemming from the tax hike.”
“…negative interest rates as follow-up and addition to massive QE were effective in keeping the Eurozone glued together because they allowed countries to stay afloat that cannot, but would need to, print their own money to stay afloat.
“They did so by making funding plentiful and nearly free, or free, or more than free.”
https://www.truthdig.com/articles/trumps-recipe-for-economic-disaster/
“Central banks “have used their tools to a large extent already” and are running out of options to mitigate the impact of global economic risks, Deutsche Bank’s CEO warned on Wednesday.
“The likes of the European Central Bank and U.S. Federal Reserve have “no conventional measures left to effectively cushion” the blow of a “real economic crisis,” Christian Sewing said at the Sibos banking conference in London.”
“…the financial world is at risk of another crisis. This time, it will be called a “derivatives crisis”, and it will make the subprime mortgage crisis of 2008 look like a walk in the park.”
https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/1758639/fresh-qe-wont-stop-global-recession
“The boss of one of the world’s largest car parts suppliers Continental warned of an “emerging crisis” in the auto industry as the company announced 20,000 jobs were at risk over the next decade.”
https://www.ft.com/content/b8a5567c-dfb8-11e9-b112-9624ec9edc59
“The real value of global exports contracted even as the global economy continued to expand — albeit at a slowing pace.
““These are rates of growth more normally associated with recessions than periods of expansion” said Adam Slater, Lead Economist at Oxford Economics.”
https://www.ft.com/content/74a00ed4-df9c-11e9-b112-9624ec9edc59
“Bulgaria’s Kristalina Georgieva has said the global economy needs to be ready to cope with a fresh economic downturn after being chosen to head the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
“The economist said she was taking charge of the Washington-based organisation at a time when growth was slowing, trade tensions growing and with debt at record levels.”
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