“How much money would have to disappear from your bank account each month before you scrapped the whole thing?
“A penny a year? That is not much to lose. Or 1pc of your savings? It might still be worth using the bank for the sake of security and for electronic payments.
“But what if 10pc of your cash was swiped? At some point you would say “stuff this”, march down to the nearest cash point or branch and take home every penny. This is the sort of problem the European Central Bank may soon have to consider.
“Mario Draghi, the ECB’s outgoing president, is expected to cut interest rates again next week, taking its deposit rate from minus 0.4pc to minus 0.5pc or 0.6pc.”
“Globally, rates are too negative… The effect that an artificially low interest rate has on an economy is pernicious. Asset markets are supported, and it raises the point at which they clear, but it also reduces the need for companies to improve internal efficiency.
“The next step in the central bank experiment may be to embrace really negative rates, not just a handful of basis points but several percentage points.”
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4289797-economic-future-negative-interest-rate-world
“Nearly a dozen years later, we may be facing the next big economic crisis, only this time everyone can see it coming. If the anticipated collapse of 2020 does occur, it’ll be the crisis with the most advance warning ever. A recession foretold. A slow, deliberate descent into chaos.
“It’s easy to imagine, therefore, that the world’s leading economic powers are better prepared than in 2008. But in fact, the opposite is true.”
“Koç Holding, Turkey’s biggest industrial group, will halt steel production at its Iskenderun plant unless the market situation in the country improves, Argus reported…
“Koç Çelik has been unable to offset a slump in domestic demand for steel billet with overseas sales, Argus said. Demand in Turkey sharply decreased in August last year, when a currency crisis sparked an economic recession.”
https://ahvalnews.com/turkey-economy/turkeys-biggest-firm-halt-steel-production-demand-slump-report
“Besides adding stimulus packages, the government also needs to keep monitoring the situation… In case, the global economy is hit by a recession in 2020 or 2021, European countries would be worst hit due to political uncertainty over Brexit.
“But considering India’s increased global exposure and present economic status, strengthening the fences by striking a balance between growth and reserves would not be a bad idea.”
“Concerns about economic recession are spreading across Southeast Asia. gross domestic product (GDP) growth, financial markets and trade in ASEAN have begun to mirror economic slowdowns in the US and China…
“Economic slowdowns push lower-income groups into poverty and expose structural flaws in the economic models prevalent in the region.”
“Australian economic growth has slowed to the weakest since the GFC. Talk of recession remains all the rage.
“And economists don’t have a great track record in predicting recessions globally – with an IMF study finding that of 153 recessions seen in 63 countries around the world between 1992 and 2014, economic forecasters only predicted five in April of the year before they started – so why should they pick one this time? “
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2019/09/australian-recession-is-certain/
“Andreina Pirrone left Venezuela for Argentina six years ago as her country was spiraling toward the worst humanitarian crisis in its history. She did not know what the future would hold, but she was certain it would be brighter… She said she had talked to her friends about leaving Argentina, but could not imagine rebuilding her life again.
““Where would I go? To suffer again, where?” she said.”
“Add the hedge fund Autonomy Capital to the list of casualties from Argentina’s recent market turmoil. Founder Robert Gibbins began making bullish wagers on the country last year, betting that the country would not default on its debt. His investments included Argentina’s 100-year government bond, according to The Wall Street Journal, which cited a person familiar with Gibbins’ thinking. But these wagers went south in August…”
“A recession is already here in US corporate profits. The US recession has arrived. No, not that one, but a recession in US company profits.”
https://www.ft.com/content/b73b1b66-cfda-11e9-99a4-b5ded7a7fe3f
“The lack of trading in the corporate bond market has been particularly eyed by financial regulators amid increased questions of how investors will be able to buy and sell debt the next time the market seizes up.”
“The world has seldom been worse-equipped to fight a recession…
“With interest rates trapped at zero or close to it across much of the industrialised world, central banks have little room to respond. Any slump in economic activity is a frightening prospect.”
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/opinion/recessions-have-become-rarer-and-more-scary
“We can probably go around in circles pointing the finger at what the main driver [for deflation] is, but it’s fair to say the headline shock and uncertainty aspect, along with tariff hikes and renegotiations have only compounded and added to the headwinds of monetary policy tightening last year.”
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4290025-global-outlook-deflation-back
“The current state of the global economy is sending out alarming signals throughout the shipping industry, which is dependant of solid trade growth, in order to continue growing as well.
“Should this current course is maintained, as is widely expected, shipping fundamentals could very well take a turn for the worse. “
“Peter Berezin of BCA Research concedes that “a sudden drop in confidence can generate a self-fulfilling cycle where rising pessimism leads to less private-sector spending, higher unemployment, lower corporate profits, weaker stock prices, and ultimately, even deeper pessimism”.
https://www.ft.com/content/3d7ba244-ce2e-11e9-99a4-b5ded7a7fe3f
“It’s the end of the world as we know it. The world is disintegrating, and much of the highly visible noise and chaos is a symptom of a much deeper problem…
“The postwar economic order was built on ever-increasing integration, and there is no precedent in modern history for how — or even whether — the global economy can cope with its opposite.”
https://www.axios.com/global-disintegration-economy-1a57b1c2-44b0-42bd-9a05-f6790f43c03e.html
Read the previous ‘Economic’ thread econo and visit my Patreon page here.
