“Get ready for a humdinger of an economic shock. That in any case is what policymakers at the Bank of England and the Treasury are doing.
“The chances of a no-deal Brexit have increased markedly over the past couple of weeks.
“In the course of the Tory leadership race, positions have hardened; Boris Johnson, who is virtually certain to win, has left himself no ladder down which to climb. Come Oct 31, it’s “do or die”. Unequivocally, he is committed to a no-deal exit should agreement on new terms prove impossible…
“…the short-term impact of a sudden death rupture with Europe is completely unknowable… it is virtually impossible to believe, as some Brexiteers still seem to, that you can fundamentally upend 45 years of progressively more integrated trade with no economic harm at all…
“Large scale closures and layoffs would undermine consumption, potentially triggering a self-reinforcing spiral of economic contraction…”
“Britain’s weak wage growth and rising prices have delivered a hit to living standards of a severity normally only seen during a deep recession, a leading thinktank has said…
“In the past 40 years, the thinktank said, only the recession of the early 1980s and the slump during and after the financial crisis had brought a weaker performance.”
“Deutsche Bank clients… have been pulling about $1 billion of funds per day and going elsewhere, placing pressure on them to complete a deal soon, said the people, who requested anonymity as the talks aren’t public.”
“A tide of weak reports are casting doubt on the Russian government’s optimistic economic forecasts for the second half.”
“How much are sanctions hurting Kim Jong Un? North Korea’s economy hasn’t been in such bad shape since his father was battling floods, droughts and a famine that some estimates say killed as much as 10% of the population.”
[They are currently battling an historic drought, which can’t be helping matters.]
“China’s efforts to shore up sagging economic growth are leading to a resurgence in indebtedness, underlining the challenge President Xi Jinping’s government faces in curbing financial risk.
“The nation’s total stock of corporate, household and government debt now exceeds 303% of gross domestic product and makes up about 15% of all global debt, according to a report published by the Institute of International Finance. That’s up from just under 297% in the first quarter of 2018.”
“India’s state governments also run their own fiscal deficits and need to borrow money in order to make up for the difference. Then there are state-owned companies which also borrow heavily.
“Meanwhile, the household savings – bank deposits, insurance funds, mutual funds, currency – which finance these borrowings have been declining over the years.”
“The grim trade numbers add to a slew of weak economic data and reinforce economists’ expectations the central bank could ease monetary policy at its October meeting. Non-oil domestic exports in June fell 17.3%, the fourth month of year-on-year decline, data from the trade agency Enterprise Singapore showed on Wednesday, slowing from the revised 16.3% decline the month before.”
“Trade-war casualties are looking more like global slowdown victims.”
“Oxford Economics said “Momentum cooled precipitously in the first half of the year.” “Looking ahead, we expect manufacturing activity and overall industrial production to remain under pressure from these headwinds.”
“Oxford expects the Fed to produce “three ‘insurance’ rate cuts over the next nine months.””
“The US government hasn’t been able to borrow since March, when a congressional cap on debt went back into force. Congress and President Donald Trump need to reach a deal before September, when the Treasury Department says it will run out of money.
“There are only seven legislative days left before the House leaves for its August recess, so the urgency is real, on both sides.”
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