“China’s exports likely fell in June as weakening global demand and a sharp hike in U.S. tariffs took a heavier toll on the world’s largest trading nation, a Reuters poll showed.
“Imports are expected to have fallen for a second straight month, pointing to continued weakness in domestic demand and highlighting the need for Beijing to roll out more economic support measures.
“If Friday’s trade data are in line with the downbeat forecasts or worse, it could spark concerns about a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China and the risk of a global recession.
“Neighbouring South Korea last week slashed its export forecasts and cut this year’s economic growth target to what would be a seven-year low as the U.S.-China trade war drags on, weighing on global demand.”
“The Chinese government injected some 4 trillion yuan (US$580 billion) into the economy in the months following the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in 2008, as the world faced the biggest economic crash since the Great Depression in the 1930s.
“The stimulus helped China avoid a recession and helped it recover more quickly than other major economies.
“Now, with the trade war between China and the United States passing its first anniversary last week, the Chinese economy is under growing pressure.”
““Chinese officials have been exercising a strikingly high degree of caution over trade negotiations with the US, appearing reluctant to rush into a new round of talks with US officials, given the latter’s lack of sincerity and continued aggressive approach toward China on multiple fronts…
“Some suggested that US officials are only showing they are working to resolve their costly trade war with China to boost the US stock markets and reassure the increasingly concerned US business community and voters ahead of what could be a heated election season.””
“The bilateral trade between India and China has declined by 3.59% year on year, totalling $36.87 billion in the first five months of this year, denting optimism that the total trade volume may cross $100 billion mark in 2019.”
“Passenger vehicles sales in India slumped 17% in June, underscoring a deepening slowdown that sparks concerns about production cuts and layoffs.
“Automotive demand in Asia’s third-biggest economy has been cooling for more than a year amid a credit crunch and distress in rural markets.”
“The research from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is of concern as the country’s household debt to disposable income ratio has skyrocketed to an all-time peak of 190%, easily among the highest in the developed world.
“Most of that is home loans, and the paper found it was this type of debt that has the largest impact on spending, even when taking into account rising incomes and house prices.”
“Last year’s European Union bank stress test did not appropriately reflect systemic risks, EU auditors said on Wednesday, a shortfall that may have produced misleading results for some lenders, especially those in weaker states.”
“The number of German corporations going insolvent is expected to rise for the first time since the 2009 economic crisis. In the latest sign that Europe’s biggest economy could be on the verge of recession, German credit rating agency Creditreform says the trend for company closures is hitting a turning point.
“The rate of corporate insolvencies sank by just 0.4% in the first half of the year — 9,900 corporations have already become insolvent — and a total of 20,000 are expected by the end of 2019.”
“Britain’s ambassador to Washington, Sir Kim Darroch, has resigned after a leak earlier this week of diplomatic memos that described the U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration as dysfunctional, clumsy, faction-riven and inept.
“Welcome to the midsummer madness that is Britain, 2019, with just over three months to go before the U.K. is scheduled to leave the European Union. Again.”
““Britain has failed to make meaningful progress towards a free trade deal with the United States. Amid “chronic” staffing shortages and communication breakdowns in Whitehall.
“Details of meetings spanning two years show how overstretched departments have been working “at cross purposes” as transatlantic talks have repeatedly stumbled over politically sensitive topics such as rules on health, farming and the finance industry.””
“Senators are growing anxious that they might have to vote to raise the nation’s debt ceiling in a matter of weeks given new estimates that the government could hit its borrowing limit earlier than expected.
“The debt limit was exceeded earlier this year, and the Treasury Department is now taking steps known as “extraordinary measures” to prevent the government from going over its borrowing limit.”
“The Federal Reserve chair, Jerome H. Powell, signaled on Wednesday that the Fed could soon cut interest rates, sending stocks higher as the benchmark S&P 500 stock index briefly traded above 3,000 for the first time.
“Mr. Powell, testifying before the House Financial Services Committee, highlighted ongoing risks to the United States economy from President Trump’s trade war and a global economic slowdown…
“…suggesting a cut may be likely when the Fed meets again later this month.”
“Be very careful not to assume that ‘easy money’ means ‘rising market.’
“Easy money amplifies speculation, provided that investors are already inclined to speculate. But if investors are inclined toward risk-aversion, safe, low-interest rate liquidity isn’t an ‘inferior’ asset at all; it’s a preferred one. As a result, creating more of the stuff simply doesn’t promote speculation…
“The misplaced exuberance of investors is something my friend Danielle DiMartino Booth calls a “Recession Party.” We doubt this party will end well.”
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