“The yield on short-term Treasurys has been higher than on long-term notes for more than 30 consecutive trading sessions, a sign that investors are concerned about the durability of the decade-long economic expansion.
“The yield on three-month bills has exceeded that of the benchmark 10-year Treasury note by as much as 0.259 percentage point, the most since May 2007, before the financial crisis.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/government-bond-market-measure-says-recession-risk-growing-11562690652
“A key recession tracker just hit its highest level since 2009, sending a signal that an economic downturn may be looming on the horizon. The New York Federal Reserve’s probability model, which predicts the probability of a US recession in the next 12 months, delivered a reading of 32.9% for June.
“That’s could mean tough times ahead, considering the measure has breached the 30% threshold before every recession since 1960.”
“There’s an art to knowing when to leave the party,” said the director of fixed income for Europe. “In fact it’s over — people are desperate and they’re hunting down the after-party. We probably only have a few hours left.”
“Rallying corporate debt is defying growth fears sounded by government bonds and warnings that risky assets are priced for perfection.”
“Sterling had fallen 0.5 per cent by 4.30pm UK time to buy $1.246, a price not traded at since mid-2017. Against the euro it had dropped 0.4 per cent, reaching €1.112.
“The impact of a likely Boris Johnson premiership – with attached no-deal Brexit risks – continued to weigh on the pound, while weak retail sales figures for June exacerbated the fall.”
https://www.cityam.com/sterling-trades-at-two-year-lows-as-recession-worries-mount/
“”Moreover, output of intermediate goods fell further, an ominous sign given that this sector often is a leading indicator for production of finished capital and consumer goods,” the economists said…
“”We’re starting to fear a Q2 GDP crash in Germany,” they warned.”
“The vast majority of Italy’s debt is held by banks, the majority within its own borders. But a significant chunk is held by banks in other part of Europe.
“Concerns about Italy’s financial position have already driven up the government’s cost of borrowing.
“A full-blown crisis of confidence among investors over Italy’s credibility could hit the fortunes of all those banks, as well as their ability to lend to businesses and households across the region.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48884517
“India is in the grip of a consumption slowdown.
“From home and auto sales to lifestyle products, latest data testifies to the slowdown…
“…but the Centre has denied the slump, stating that a few sectors were booming with demand.”
“The historic slump in China’s car demand is set to persist, with dealers showing no signs of boosting orders from manufacturers as economic woes and stricter emissions rules keep consumers away.
“Wholesales of passenger vehicles fell 7.8% to 1.73 million units in June and have now slid for 12 consecutive months, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said Wednesday.”
“China’s producer prices flat-lined in June on lower oil prices and weak global demand, fueling concerns that a slowdown in manufacturing from a bruising trade war will further drag on growth in the world’s second-biggest economy.
“The producer price index (PPI) showed no growth in June from a year earlier…”
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/10/chinas-june-producer-prices-and-consumer-price-index.html
“The world’s largest supplier of consumer goods says China’s factories are getting “urgent and desperate” as worried U.S. retailers accelerate a move out of the country amid heightened trade tensions.”
“Cramer called the dim outlook “a very big deal.”
““Now we’ve got real concern, real reason to be worried. While the Federal Reserve believes business is strong because we just got a terrific labor report last Friday,” the “Mad Money” host said, “the weak forecast from chemical giant BASF suggests that the global economy might be in rougher shape than that employment number might indicate.””
“Faltering trade growth in certain parts of the world amid increasing trade barriers and decline in investments are extremely worrying, the OECD’s chief economist Laurence Boone told CNBC Tuesday.
““I have been, and I continue to be, very very worried about what’s happening on the trade side.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/09/global-trade-uncertainty-is-a-big-concern-for-the-oecd.html
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