“The risk of a global downturn is now at its highest in at least four years, according to investors surveyed by Absolute Strategy Research.
“Global bond markets have rallied in recent weeks as central banks respond to signs that major economies are looking increasingly fragile.”
“The rising threat of no-deal Brexit has set Britain on course for the biggest decline in business investment since the financial crisis, the Confederation of British Industry has warned.
“Paving the way for weaker future economic growth, the CBI warned that business spending in the UK economy was set to decline by about 1.3% in 2019 compared with a year ago – the steepest drop since the last recession in 2009.”
“The sharpest slide in German factory orders since the financial crisis ignited fears that the slowdown in Europe’s biggest economy is escalating into a more serious slump. Factory orders plunged 8.6pc year-on-year in May, the biggest annual tumble in almost a decade.
“The shock setback for Germany’s ailing manufacturers stoked concerns that central banks will need to take action to arrest a deepening global downturn.”
“Deutsche Bank announced Sunday that it will pull out of its global equities sales and trading business as part of a sweeping restructuring plan to improve profitability.
“The bank will also slash 18,000 jobs for a global headcount of around 74,000 employees by 2022. The bank aims to reduce costs by 6 billion euros.”
“Turkey has fired its central bank governor as policy differences between the government and the bank deepen in the face of an economic slump, volatility in the lira currency and high inflation.
“Murat Çetinkaya, who had been serving as the governor since April 2016, was removed from the role and replaced by his deputy Murat Uysal…”
“India’s fourth largest bank has reported another big-ticket scam. On July 6, Punjab National Bank (PNB) said in a stock exchange filing that one of its debtors, Bhushan Power & Steel, has defrauded the bank of Rs3805.15 crore ($555 million).”
“China’s fuel producers are making extended curbs to their output in the third quarter after supply from mammoth new refineries stoked an already-sizeable glut, potentially dragging on crude oil demand from the world’s biggest importer of the commodity…
““For markets that are already consumed with fears about a global recession … headline numbers of oil demand growth slowing alongside talk of run cuts seem to reinforce a bearish narrative,” said Michal Meidan, a London-based analyst at Energy Aspects.”
“Corporate bond issuance in South Korea hit an all-time high in the first half of the year as companies rushed to capitalize on strong investor appetite for bonds triggered by lingering doubts about the Korean economy and underlying stocks amid U.S-China trade frictions.”
“Japan’s machinery orders fell for the first time since January and at a faster rate than expected, casting doubt on the strength of capital investment over the coming months amid a global economic slowdown.
“Core machinery orders, a leading indicator of capital expenditure, fell 7.8% in May from April… Orders slipped 3.7% from the previous year.”
“The economic expansion this week became the longest in U.S. history, surpassing the 1990s boom, which lasted exactly a decade…
“But this expansion has been weaker and its benefits distributed far more unevenly than in previous growth cycles, leaving many Americans in a vulnerable position.
“This is a “two-tier recovery,” said Matthew Mish, head of credit strategy at the investment bank UBS. About 60 percent of Americans have benefited financially, he said, while 40 percent have not.
“The 40 percent — which Mish calls the “lower tier” — have seen paltry or volatile wage growth, rising expenses for housing, health care and education, and increased levels of personal debt. They tend not to own homes or many stocks.”
Read the previous ‘Economic’ thread here and visit my Patreon page here.