“Jobs losses. Factory closures. Trade war. Climate change. Britain is in a manufacturing recession, say businesses, and there is little reason to think it will escape the downturn anytime soon.
“Business activity slumped last month at the fastest pace since the eurozone crisis of 2011-13 and almost every part of the industry is struggling.”
“Britain’s construction industry “dropped like a stone” in June to record its worst monthly performance in more than 10 years…
“The IHS Markit/Cips construction purchasing managers’ index (PMI) plunged to 43.1, the lowest reading since April 2009 when the country was gripped by the global financial crisis. A PMI figure below 50 shows the sector has contracted.”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jul/02/uk-construction-industry-housebuilders-brexit
“A no-deal Brexit could be almost as bad as the 2008 financial crisis, Conservative leadership candidate Jeremy Hunt has conceded.
“The foreign secretary said the shock of a no-deal could increase the national debt by £90 billion, and agreed with William Hague it may lead to Scotland and Northern Ireland breaking away from the United Kingdom.”
“Let this sink in for a minute: Yields on two-year Italian government bonds briefly fell below 0% on Tuesday.
“That’s right – for a moment, investors decided it was just fine to pay Italy for the privilege of lending it money, even though barely a month ago the country was on the verge of a fiscal crisis so bad some wondered whether it would be need to leave the euro zone.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-07-02/italy-proves-how-markets-have-abandoned-logic
“Housing, often an early indicator of cyclical turns, has weakened [in the US]. Even though not all in the sector looks bad, investors and policy makers would do well to watch this area especially carefully.
“The headline figures from the Census Bureau paint the most ominous picture. They recorded a sharp 8% drop in the sales of newly constructed privately owned homes in May, almost 4% below the level a year ago.”
“Here’s my theory. The [US] economy should have entered recession a year ago. The late-2017 tax cuts bought a little time by encouraging business investment, while the Fed’s rate hikes made homebuyers rush to beat rising mortgage rates.
“Then, the Trump trade fight sparked an import boom that created more activity and jobs. That extended the growth a little more. But those effects were temporary, and now they’re running out.”
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/freight-slowdown-is-a-terrible-sign-for-the-economy/
“Cuba’s Communist government said on Tuesday it was studying the potential use of cryptocurrency as part of a series of measures to boost its economy amid a deepening crisis exacerbated by U.S. sanctions.
“Cryptocurrency, which allows financial operations to be carried out anonymously, has been used in the past to get around capital controls.”
“India’s financial system [is at] at risk. “This is a crisis waiting to happen,” said Vivek Dehejia, an economist at Carleton University in Canada.”
https://www.ft.com/content/4400e274-9638-11e9-8cfb-30c211dcd229
“Labor says the [Australian] Reserve Bank’s decision to cut interest rates for the second month in a row to a record low of 1% shows the “floundering” economy needs more stimulus, as it urges the government to back its proposal to bring forward tax cuts.”
“New car sales tumbled in June by 9.6 per cent to extend a run of softness in the vehicle market to 15 consecutive months…
“Industry players had been hopeful that an interest rate cut in early June by the Reserve Bank of Australia and sharp deals offered by car dealers in the traditional end of year discounting might trigger an upswing in June. The RBA followed up with a second cut on Tuesday amid a weak economy.”
https://www.afr.com/business/transport/new-vehicle-sales-slump-15-months-in-a-row-20190703-p523n0
““It’s a bit of a scary time for the global economy,” the NYU professor and head of Roubini Macro Associates told Bloomberg Television Tuesday.
““There is a risk of a global recession and financial crisis by next year.” Roubini pointed to the ongoing U.S.-China trade conflict as the likeliest trigger of the next crisis.”
“Carney said: “The more hostile and uncertain trading environment is coinciding with sharp slowdowns in global trade, manufacturing, industrial production and capital goods orders.
“As a consequence, the quality of global growth has deteriorated.
“Across the G7, the growth rate of business investment has almost halved since its peak in late 2017, leaving the global expansion more reliant on consumer spending and reducing its resilience.””
“Global manufacturing is faltering.”
https://www.ft.com/content/819409cc-9bf1-11e9-9c06-a4640c9feebb
“OPEC and other supply-cutting countries led by Russia on Tuesday finalized plans to prop up oil prices, which have taken sharp drops in recent months as a slowing global economy depressed the outlook for demand…
“Yet oil prices remained depressed following the announcement, signaling that concerns about a slowdown in growth have overwhelmed expectations for lower supply.”
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