“Factory sentiment across Asia became even more frigid in June, signaling a worsening in the region’s growth outlook as U.S.-China trade tensions continue to simmer.
“Waning global demand, particularly in the electronics sector that’s vital to much of the region, continued to weigh on Asia purchasing manager indexes, according to releases Monday. Trade friction between the world’s two biggest economies is straining the outlook despite both countries agreeing over the weekend to resume negotiations.
“June PMIs for Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, and Taiwan fell further below 50, signaling deeper contractions in factory output. South Korea’s index slumped to a four-month low of 47.5, while Taiwan’s reading of 45.5 was the weakest since November 2011, according to IHS Markit data. Both China’s official manufacturing PMI and the Caixin report signaled declining production last month.
” Recent U.S.-China developments — including a pledge by U.S. President Donald Trump, at the weekend’s Group of 20 meetings, to delay any further tariffs — have done little to convince economists that the data will show a turnaround this year. “
“Australia is about to reach its last percentage point of interest-rate ammunition, dragging the country’s economy and markets deeper into the low-yield world that’s already engulfed many of its developed-world peers.
“Yields on the nation’s 10-year government bonds hit an all-time low 1.26% last week…”
“[South African] Institutions and municipalities in financial crisis for the past five years have no recovery plans.
“The management of beleaguered state institutions and local municipalities last week reached new crisis levels after employees at a number of institutions were either not paid on time or not at all.”
“Saudi Arabia’s economic growth more than halved on a quarterly basis to 1.66% in the first quarter of this year, in line with expectations of only a modest pick up as oil production cuts weigh on the world’s top crude exporter…
“On Sunday, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said the cuts would most likely be extended by nine months.”
“Growth in UK manufacturing slowed between April and June, a closely-watched business survey showed on Monday, with key measures the weakest in years.
“Factories’ sales at home and abroad rose but at the slowest pace in seven years, according to the quarterly poll by the British Chambers of Commerce. The outlook is also gloomy…”
“Jeremy Hunt will announce plans for a £20 billion “war chest” for a no deal Brexit which would see dramatic tax cuts designed to turbo-charge the economy.
“The Foreign Secretary will unveil a detailed 10-point plan for leaving without a deal, with a package of financial support which he likens to that offered in the immediate aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis.”
“Signs of weakness in the manufacturing sector have been mounting left and right in recent months, adding to concerns that the decade-long expansion could be running out of steam…
“The US purchasing managers index, which gauges activity based on a survey of firms, dropped this May to its lowest level since President Donald Trump took office. Regional readings have been similarly dismal, with the Empire State manufacturing index posting its largest drop ever this month.”
“Unfortunately, there are an increasing number of signs that are warning that the expansion is soon coming to end and that a recession is not far away.
“Particularly alarming is the fact that the New York Fed’s very accurate recession probability model is warning that the current odds of a recession in the next year are the same as they were in July 2007, which is when the subprime debt crisis kicked into high gear.”
“Currency Warrior; Why Trump is Weaponising the Dollar…
“The dollar’s share of global foreign exchange reserves has slipped in the 10 years since the financial crisis, but at 62 per cent of the total it still dwarfs all rivals… the world is locked into the dollar as the default currency.”
“Global central banks may have to issue their own digital currencies sooner than expected, the general manager of the Bank for International Settlements has said, after Facebook recently unveiled plans to create its own stablecoin.”
“The world’s biggest central banks, having been on a money-printing binge for years, are about to embark on a fresh round, it seems. Yet inflation is nowhere to be seen, which appears to suggest that the money is disappearing into a giant sink hole or new kind of black hole that physicists have yet to identify…
“…the consequences of profligate money-printing will thrust themselves upon world attention probably not far down the road. They are like the unseen but massive roots of a tree that threaten to undermine and topple the house – or global economy – it is supposed to shade.”
“Corporate borrowing poses a danger to the global financial system and could trigger a crisis in the same way US sub-prime mortgages sparked the 2008 banking crash, the organisation that represents the world’s central banks has warned…
“While it was not clear whether or how a crisis might unfold, the $3tn (£2.4tn) market for low-grade corporate debt was already “overheating” and risked provoking a panic that could send market values crashing as happened 11 years ago.”
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