““[Fund manager survey] investors have not been this bearish since the Global Financial Crisis, with pessimism driven by trade war and recession concerns” wrote Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist
“Allocations to equities are at their lowest levels in history…”
“The mood among German investors deteriorated sharply in June, a survey showed on Tuesday, with the ZEW institute pointing to recent weak economic data and an escalating trade dispute between China and the United States…
“The weaker-than-expected sentiment survey adds to signs that German economic growth will be meagre this year.”
“A showdown [between Rome and Brussels] is certain. The timing is unknown, but it is sooner rather than later. At the moment, France is also in breach of economic rules and there is this “little” thing called Brexit on the ECB and EU’s mind.
“So the EU will do what it always does, pretend there is no crisis and hope it goes away. But it won’t.”
“Donald Trump has accused the European Central Bank of unfairly manipulating the euro, further raising the stakes for Washington in its trade and diplomatic disputes around the world.
“The US president suggested in a tweet that comments by Mario Draghi, the head of the ECB, had triggered an immediate slide in the value of the euro versus the dollar, “making it unfairly easier for them to compete against the USA”.”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jun/18/donald-trump-attacks-ecb-for-currency-manipulation
“In many ways, central banks and government officials have few other choices than to seek a weaker currency to make their economies more competitive.
“It’s been a decade since the Great Recession, and despite a prolonged period of interest rates near zero or below and many trillions of dollars injected into the financial system through asset purchases by central banks, the global economy has yet to achieve anything akin to escape velocity.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-06-18/currency-wars-are-starting-to-flare-up-again
“Iceland is preparing for a deeper recession this year amid dropping tourism arrivals and a disastrous fishing season, central bank Governor Mar Gudmundsson said.
““We are prepared for the possibility of a deeper recession, and the numbers we are getting on tourist arrivals seem to indicate that that may happen,” Gudmundsson said…”
“Like many Argentines, Daniel Roger and his family found themselves slipping down the social ladder over the past year to join the one-third of their compatriots living below the poverty line.
“Sideswiped by the country’s swirling 57 percent inflation, their rent became too expensive and they were forced to move into a budget hotel to make ends meet.
“The downward spiral familiar to many Argentines — a staggering 32 percent of whom are officially classed as poor — had begun.”
https://www.france24.com/en/20190619-argentinas-new-poor-sink-deeper-amid-recession
“Facing a record amount of debt that’s about to mature, India’s non-bank financing companies are finding their troubles worsening as a crisis of credibility starts to bite.
“The shadow lenders, which have been under increased strain after the collapse of IL&FS Group last year, have a record 1.1 trillion rupees ($15.8 billion) of local-currency bonds due next quarter, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.”
“China’s total public and private debt has reached new highs compared with the size of its economy, raising fears that Beijing’s stimulus push will expand it even further.”
https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/China-s-debt-mountain-scales-new-heights-on-trade-war-stimulus
“Japan’s exports fell for a sixth straight month in May as China-bound shipments of semiconductor manufacturing equipment and car parts weakened, in a sign of a deteriorating outlook for growth as the trade-reliant economy faces persistent pressure from slowing external demand.”
“As the Fed has pulled back from the market, demand for home loans has dropped and mortgage rates have risen, effectively tightening financial conditions.”
https://www.ft.com/content/2c2b8612-9120-11e9-b7ea-60e35ef678d2
“With a 6 percent decline [in the Cass freight index] in May, Broughton believes the market has shifted from “warning of a potential slowdown” to “signaling an economic contraction.”
“Further, he questioned if the May reading was significant enough to ponder second quarter 2019 GDP in the negative territory.”
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/cass-data-negative-in-may-signaling-an-economic-contraction
“An obscure product made by oil refineries has a grim story to tell investors right now about the fortunes of the global economy.
“That product is naphtha, something used to make a vast array of goods while also being integral to churning out gasoline. Oil refiners’ margins from making it are the weakest in years in Europe and Asia. Unusually, some petrochemical plants in Asia have even been losing money when processing it.”
“The universe of government bonds with negative-yields continues to swell…
“The ballooning value of subzero-yielding debt reflects how global bond markets continue to attract inflows from jittery investors who see few ports of shelter as a U.S.-China trade war threatens to roil international growth.”
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/value-of-debt-with-negative-yields-nears-12-trillion-2019-06-18
“Global flows of foreign direct investment fell by 13 percent last year, to their lowest level since the financial crisis, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development reported last week.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/18/business/economy/global-economy-trade-war.html
“Experts say ensuring antibiotics are only used when absolutely necessary is a vital way to stop the spread of antimicrobial resistance (AMR).
“A United Nations report published in April warned that unless urgent action is taken AMR will cause 10 million deaths a year by 2050 and damage to the global economy similar to the 2008-09 financial crisis.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/countries-risking-spread-superbugs-failing-monitor-antibiotic/
“Britain will face a cyberattack from a hostile state soon that could bring down the financial system, a Bank of England policymaker has warned. Anil Kashyap, an external member of the financial policy committee, told MPs that it was only “a matter of time before one of these things happens on a big scale”.
“He said that the Bank was vulnerable despite preparing its defences.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/huge-cyberattack-just-a-matter-of-time-rqtz5k9sz
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