“Global trade flows are flat or falling in all major regions as the world economy flirts with recession for the first time since 2008/09…
“Freight volumes handled through major ports such as Long Beach and Singapore as well as air cargo handled through hubs such as Hong Kong, Memphis, London and Frankfurt are either flat or down compared with 2018…
“Forward-looking freight indicators suggest the slowdown is likely to continue for the rest of the year and could turn into an outright recession.
“Global manufacturers report new export orders have been falling for nine months and are now declining at the fastest rate since 2015/16, according to the JPMorgan global purchasing managers’ index…
“At the moment, however, the global economy appears to be on the leading edge of a recession, and it seems more likely than not the downturn will deepen in the next six months unless action is taken to turn it around.”
“World oil markets have undergone a U-turn, switching from supply-side risks like OPEC’s production cuts or U.S. sanctions against producers Iran and Venezuela, analysts said, to concerns of slowing consumption amid fears of a global recession.”
“The world car market is about to take its biggest hit since the financial crisis of 2008, according to a report from Germany’s Center for Automotive Research (CAR), with sales diving more than 4 million in 2019.”
“Data released over the next few months will show that the current US economic expansion is the longest on record. But while the US continues to outperform other advanced economies, this success has yet to dispel many Americans’ persistent sense of economic insecurity and frustration; nor does it alleviate concerns about the lack of policy space to respond to the next economic downturn or financial shock.”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jun/12/the-unusual-us-economic-recovery-is-now-its-longest
“A closely watched measure of U.S. inflation trailed forecasts in May, reinforcing the case among investors for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. The core consumer price index, which removes energy and food costs, rose 2% from a year earlier, according to a Labor Department report Wednesday.
“Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had predicted a 2.1% increase. Monthly core price-rises, as well as a wider measure of annual inflation, also came in below estimates.”
“Euro-area inflation expectations slid to a record low, adding pressure on the European Central Bank to step up policy support for the region’s economy.
Five-year forward five-year inflation swaps, a gauge of investor estimates of price increases in coming years, dropped Wednesday to 1.1830%, well below the ECB’s target of close to, but below 2%.
“That suggests the central bank may have to take further steps to revive inflation, such as restarting bond buying, or potentially even cutting interest rates deeper into negative territory.”
“Turkish society is divided as never before, an AK Parti win in Istanbul may trigger social turmoil in Turkey, which the state may be unable to control.
“The soccer games, particularly those of Besiktas SK and Fenerbahce SK are conducive in initiating such mass mobilization as the fans of those soccer clubs are known to be anti-government.”
“After months of denial, the [Indian] government also admitted that unemployment is higher than it has been for four decades.
“Now, Arvind Subramanian, a well-regarded economist who was till last year one of Modi’s most senior advisers, has argued in a Harvard working paper that India’s official figures overestimate growth by several percentage points…
“The government had better understand that this is a crisis of credibility. Its own senior officials don’t believe its numbers. Shortly, nobody else will either.”
“With both sides showing no sign of making concessions, a peaceful outcome appears elusive.
“How this will unfold shall be closely followed by Beijing and the local and international communities.
“Meanwhile, questions have been raised as to whether the controversial bill has taken a toll on the city’s business environment, after a property developer abandoned a multibillion-dollar deal, citing “social contradiction and economic instability”.”
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