“The world’s biggest economies are on track for their worst year since 2009, with early warning signals pointing to a sustained slowdown in growth.
“Growth in the US, Japan, Canada and the eurozone is easing, according to an index compiled by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
“The index for the 35-strong club of developed economies fell to 99.0 in March, the lowest reading since September 2009 and below the average of 100 seen over the past few years.
“The scores are based on components such as demand for services, car sales, consumer confidence, industrial output and share prices. The aim of the index is to predict growth patterns six to nine months into the future…”
“It is possible the Fed’s reversal might prevent an outright recession and give us a “soft landing”. The bond market might be wrong, and long rates might reverse higher and give us a positive sloping yield curve again.
“If all of that happened, and inflation ticked back up, and the Fed resumed gradual rate increases at the short end of the curve but lagging increases in long-term rates, we might construct a scenario that would avoid recession.
“But that is not what the statistical indicators are currently saying, or what past history tells us…”
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4263530-u-s-recession-predictor-sends-warning-signal
“40 percent of U.S. families, including middle-class households, sometimes struggle to afford housing, utilities, food or health care, according to the Urban Institute.
“Nearly 1 in 5 families said they had experienced difficulty paying for food or medical care. About 60 percent of low-income people surveyed by the nonpartisan think tank said they couldn’t pay their bills at times.”
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/a-decade-after-the-recession-40-of-us-families-still-struggling/
“Neither Donald Trump nor Xi Jinping can afford to blink. A personal duel between two rival presidents could ensure that the escalating trade war across the Pacific may last longer than anyone expected.
“The showdown is now no longer just a confrontation between China and the US — one a rising power challenging the long established dominance of the global economic leader. It’s become a test of wills between two of the world’s most powerful men, each of whom has political interests that are more likely to deepen the conflict than to quickly ease it.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/05/14/politics/donald-trump-xi-jinping-china-trade-war/index.html
“A Chinese cargo plane arrived in the Venezuelan capital of Caracas on Monday, the Venezuelan Ministry of Communication has told CNN.
“The plane was carrying aid for the impoverished nation: approximately 2 million units of medical equipment, including medicine and surgical medical supplies. The supplies will be distributed by agencies designated by the government of embattled President Nicolas Maduro.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/05/13/americas/chinese-aid-arrives-in-venezuela-intl/index.html
“The Chamber of Mines and the Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries have warned of catastrophic ripple effects on the economy after the state power utility imposed the worst rolling blackouts in three years on Monday, with households and industries including mines set to be without electricity for up to eight hours daily.”
https://www.zimlive.com/2019/05/14/mines-industries-warn-of-economic-catastrophe-as-power-cuts-bite/
“President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s mishandling of his country’s currency crisis heightens substantially the probability that Turkey will soon default on its external debt. That could jeopardise the rest of the emerging market economies’ prospects as well European banks, particularly in Spain, with high Turkish debt exposure…
“After plunging by 30% in 2018, since the start of this year the currency has lost a further 14% in value and shows no signs of stabilising.”
https://www.aei.org/publication/turkey-headed-for-debt-default/
“A festering four-year war, crippling sanctions, threats to maritime oil trade and a US naval battlegroup steaming for the Persian Gulf.
“Such developments were troubling enough, before two Saudi tankers were reportedly sabotaged off the UAE coast on Sunday – a development set to ratchet tensions between Tehran and Washington to new and combustible highs.”
“Passenger vehicle sales in India registered the steepest decline in about eight years in April as tighter availability of credit in a slowing economy damped demand.
“Automotive demand in Asia’s third-largest economy has been cooling since July amid a credit crunch and distress in rural markets.”
“A backbone-breaking crisis is “imminent” in [India’s] non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) sector, India’s Corporate Affairs Secretary warned in an interview last week calling this a defining moment for India’s economy. Speaking to PTI news agency, Injeti Srinivas said a few recent misadventures by some large entities and a general credit squeeze will lead to the disaster, according to NDTV.”
https://qrius.com/is-the-indian-shadow-banking-sector-in-crisisall-you-need-to-know/
“With Japan’s economy officially described as deteriorating for the first time in over six years, the government and ruling party are ramping up calls for further stimulus measures as the country gears up for an upper house election in the summer and a tax hike in the fall.”
https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Japan-eyes-new-stimulus-as-economy-logs-first-slump-in-6-years
“Young people who entered Britain’s labor market amid the 2008 financial crisis are still “scarred” by its impact on their employment and earnings potential, researchers found.
“The so-called “crisis cohort,” who entered the world of work following the financial meltdown of 2008, have continued to face higher unemployment, lower pay and worse job prospects more than a decade later, according to a new report.”
“Having wreaked havoc on the local elections, Brexit looks set to do the same on the European elections: the latest polling for the Observer puts Nigel Farage’s Brexit party on 34% – more than Labour (21%) and the Tories (a catastrophic 11%) combined.
“The news sparked near-panic in Britain’s two biggest parties, while the former Ukip leader insisted a win for his month-old party on 23 May would force MPs to reconsider the idea of leaving the EU without a deal, which they have already rejected.”
“The crisis at Metro Bank deepened on Monday when the shares crashed another eight percent amid growing concerns about the lenders financial position. Weekend pictures of customers queuing to take money out, evoking memories of Northern Rock, did little to help City confidence, although Metro blamed false rumours.”
“There’s limited hope for an imminent turnaround in the global economy as the richest nations continue to lose momentum.”
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