“The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday cut its global growth forecast to the lowest level since the financial crisis, warning of significant downside risks to the world economy including trade tensions, pockets of political instability, mounting debt levels and increasing inequality.
“The IMF lowered its growth forecast for 2019 to 3.3 percent from the previous level of 3.5 percent in its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO).
“This is the third time in six months that the fund has revised its outlook downward.”
“Britain’s already struggling economy would be pushed into a two-year recession by a no-deal Brexit, the International Monetary Fund has warned.
“Ahead of Theresa May’s plea to EU leaders for a further delay to Britain’s departure, the IMF used a downbeat half-yearly assessment of the global economy to predict that the UK economy could be 3.5% smaller than expected by 2021…”
“Italy cut its growth forecasts for this year and next on Tuesday while hiking the budget deficit and public debt, underscoring the economic woes faced by the populist ruling coalition.
“Gross domestic product in the euro zone’s third largest economy will increase just 0.2 percent this year, the government said, down from a projection of 1.0 percent it made in December.”
“The European Central Bank, after sharply revising downward its baseline growth projections and seeing no decisive lifting of the downside risks, could be tempted to signal at its Governing Council meeting on Wednesday that it will pursue a further loosening of its monetary policy stance…
“There is increased recognition of the difficult 2019 outlook for the euro zone…”
“The free fall in the world’s largest car market has shown no signs of easing. Retail sales of sedans, sport utility vehicles, minivans and multipurpose vehicles in China continued their plunge in March, dropping 12 percent to 1.78 million units…”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2019-04-10/china-car-market-slump-persists-video
“Shipments of mobile phones to China fell 6 percent in March compared with the same year-earlier month, official figures showed on Wednesday, as slowing economic growth took a toll on the sector. The shipments dropped to 28.4 million units in March from 30.2 million units in March 2018, the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT) said…”
“Japanese banks have stepped up investments in highly illiquid, securitised loans, mostly in the U.S. market, as it becomes increasingly difficult to earn decent interest income from conventional products like government bonds…
“While the increased exposure brings back memories of similar, complex products made up of subprime mortgages that triggered a global financial crisis a decade ago, banks say they are managing risks carefully.”
“There are worrisome trends developing in the lending market, reporting from the Washington Post and Bloomberg shows.
“”Actions by federal regulators and Republicans in Congress over the past two years have paved the way for banks and other financial companies to issue more than $1 trillion in risky corporate loans, sparking fears that Washington and Wall Street are repeating the mistakes made before the financial crisis.””
https://www.axios.com/debt-market-loans-aa4cd61f-5dd9-46ce-9738-e7078f6eccea.html
“Evidence is piling up that the U.S. is heading for a slowdown. And as I have written to you frequently, that in itself is not as important as what investors as a whole (“the market”) do with that information.
“We could technically avoid a textbook recession, defined as 2 consecutive quarters of negative economic growth), but if the markets react to the rumor and not the news, so to speak, the result to you is the same: generally lower stock prices and a potential shock to the bond market.”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/robisbitts2/2019/04/09/recession-looming-yup/#64cd20ca3b7a
“President Donald Trump will issue two executive orders in the heart of the Texas energy hub on Wednesday seeking to speed gas, coal and oil projects delayed by coastal states as he looks to build support ahead of next year’s election… An environmentalist decried the planned orders. “Trump can try to rewrite regulations in favor of Big Oil, but he can’t stop people power and our movement,” said May Boeve, the head of 350. org.”
“More undocumented immigrants and migrants were apprehended along the southern border in March than any month since 2008, according to Customs and Border Protection data released Tuesday.
“CBP officials have been warning about the surge in migrants for weeks and the new numbers come amid a time of turmoil within the agency and Department of Homeland Security, which oversees the border security mission.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/04/09/politics/apprehensions-border-highest-decade/index.html
“Venezuela removed eight tonnes of gold from the central bank’s vaults last week, and the cash-strapped socialist state is expected to sell the bullion abroad as it seeks to raise hard currency in the face of U.S. sanctions, a lawmaker and one government source said.”
Read the previous ‘Economy’ thread here and visit my Patreon page here.
