“Australian property prices are falling at a faster rate than during the global financial crisis (GFC) with new figures showing the decline is widening outside the Sydney and Melbourne markets.
“The Australia Bureau of Statistics released figures today showing house prices in capital cities fell 2.4 per cent in the December quarter to record a total drop of 5.1 per cent in 2018.
This compares with the annual fall of 4.6 per cent in 2009 during the GFC.”
“Australia could be the “first domino to fall” in a global economic crisis for the first time in its 200-year history.
“That’s according to economist John Adams, Digital Finance Analytics founder Martin North and Irish financial adviser Eddie Hobbs, who argue Australia’s economy is looking increasingly similar to Ireland’s prior to the 2007 housing collapse…”
“Australian businesses are being warned that a blowout in invoice payment times in China could have a ripple effect here, given the massive trade links between the two countries.
“Figures by trade credit insurance provider Coface suggest that Chinese businesses are increasingly taking longer to pay their bills, as a trade war with the US and a general economic slowdown bite, coupled with a spike in the number of bankruptcy cases in China.”
https://www.mybusiness.com.au/finance/5565-business-warning-over-china-payments-slowdown
“Wang Jingwu, head of the central bank’s financial stability department, expressed long-term concerns in an article in China Finance, a central bank publication.
““We need to pay high attention to the risk that the global economy will fall into a recession again in the medium- and long- term, and be alert to its gradual evolution that may trigger a new round of economic and financial crisis,” he wrote.”
“Asia’s exports slump is expected to deepen, with analysts saying regional trade is heading for its lowest point since 2015. Amid a slowdown in global demand, Asian exports will continue to decline until at least April, according to an index compiled by Nomura Bank.”
“The partnership at the heart of the OPEC+ alliance showed further signs of strain after Russia pressured the Saudi-led group to delay a decision on the future of their production cuts.
“The unusual recommendation to cancel next month’s scheduled meeting means the group probably won’t decide whether to prolong its supply curbs until late June, just days before they expire.”
“Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay has played down the prospect of asking the Queen to shut down parliament after the government was plunged into a “major constitutional crisis”.
“Prime Minister Theresa May will gather her top ministers on Tuesday morning as they try to find a way past a bombshell ruling by Speaker of the House of Commons John Bercow. In a major intervention on Monday, Mr Bercow cited a centuries-old convention as he blocked Mrs May from bringing back her twice-defeated Brexit deal for a third vote…”
“ECB in its last Governing Council meeting, announced new projections, which suggest that 2021 will be the ninth calendar year in succession that the central bank will fail to meet is inflation objection in terms of the annual year average, notes Nick Kounis, head of financial markets research at ABN AMRO…
“The most likely policy tool is a restart of net purchases under a broad asset purchase programme.”
“The broker of this marriage appears to be the German government, which has ideas about creating a national bank large enough to compete with American investment banks.
“But it is not at all clear that a merger would solve the banks’ problems, let alone create a “national champion. Both banks are zombies…”
“As part of a European business restructure announced in January, Ford is reorganising its workforce in the region by up to 5,000 jobs. “The goal is to significantly decrease structural costs, reduce bureaucracy, empower leaders and managers, and eliminate less value-added work,” the automaker said in a statement.
“It has now offered “voluntary separation” programmes for employees in Germany and the UK…”
https://www.just-auto.com/news/ford-aims-to-axe-5000-german-jobs_id187747.aspx
“President Donald Trump ramped up his public attacks against both General Motors and an Ohio union leader to try get an Ohio auto plant reopened.
“The factory officially closed its doors March 6 despite pressure from Trump, both Ohio senators, and United Auto Workers members to save some 1,500 jobs in the Lordstown plant.”
“The White House released proposals to reform higher education in the United States Monday, including limits on grad student and parent loans meant to encourage universities to lower their tuition.
“U.S. student loan debt, which reached nearly $1.5 trillion last year, has become a national epidemic as the cost of higher education continues to rise.”
http://fortune.com/2019/03/18/white-house-student-loan-proposals/
“Federal Reserve officials say they’re willing to tolerate an overshoot of their inflation goal. If the opposite happens, the plan is less clear. Core inflation, excluding energy and food prices, is currently just shy of the central bank’s 2 percent target.
“Most economists and policy makers see that lasting, though there’s no guarantee: Inflation expectations have been stuck on the low side, and a cooler housing market is among several factors that could weigh on future price pressures.”
“I first suggested the U.S. economy was headed toward a recession more than a year ago, and now others are forecasting the same. I give a business downturn starting this year a two-thirds probability. The recessionary indicators are numerous:
“Tighter monetary policy by the Federal Reserve that the central bank now worries it may have overdone. The near-inversion in the Treasury yield curve. The swoon in stocks at the end of last year. Weaker housing activity. Soft consumer spending… Then there are the effects of the deteriorating European economies…”
“Now it’s the third month in a row, and the red flag is getting more visible and a little harder to ignore about the goods-based economy: Freight shipment volume in the US across all modes of transportation – truck, rail, air, and barge – in February fell 2.1% from February a year ago, according to the Cass Freight Index, released today. The three months in a row of year-over-year declines are the first such declines since the transportation recession of 2015 and 2016.”
https://wolfstreet.com/2019/03/18/declining-freight-volume-signals-slowdown-for-goods-based-economy/
“As the world braces itself for an economic slowdown, countries cannot treat the darkening skies over the global economy simply as passing clouds.
“Nations will need more than a normal, cyclical policy response, said Singapore Deputy Prime Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam in a exclusive interview with Chinese business magazine, Caijing, published yesterday.
“In the next two years, the United States is likely to experience a downturn, and so is the rest of the global economy. But the world is witnessing never-before-seen risks, said Mr Tharman, who is also Coordinating Minister for Economic and Social Policies.”
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