“The Turkish economy contracted a sharper than expected 3.0 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018, its worse performance in nearly a decade, in the clearest sign yet that last year’s currency crisis is tipping it into recession.
“Turkey, a major emerging market once seen as a star performer by international investors, achieved growth of more than 7 percent in 2017. But last year it was battered by a 30 percent slide in the value of the lira.
“The year-on-year quarterly contraction compared with a median forecast of a 2.7 percent decline in a Reuters poll, and it was the worst performance since 2009.”
Mexico slowdown threaten’s Lopez Obrador’s honeymoon:
“Manuel León gazed longingly at a big-screen television in a Mexico City department store. “I’m only spending on the necessary — food and rent. For a luxury like a TV, this isn’t the time.” It is a common complaint.”
https://www.ft.com/content/302b372a-3f05-11e9-b896-fe36ec32aece
“Furious Venezuelans lined up to buy water and fuel on Sunday as the country endured a fourth day of a nationwide blackout that has left already-scarce food rotting in shops, homes suffering for lack of water and cell phones without reception.
“Authorities have managed to provide only patchy access to power since the outage began on Thursday in what President Nicolas Maduro called an act of U.S.-backed sabotage…”
“China has an inflation problem. It’s too low and likely to get lower still. The slowing pace of consumer price increases isn’t sexy like a bad purchasing managers’ number, a collapse in car sales or a stock-market swoon.
“Lowflation tends to happen slowly. That doesn’t make it less of a concern. Once it gets hold of an economy, it can be devilishly tricky to shake.”
“Weaker-than-expected Chinese loan and money supply data raised expectations of further action to spur the slowing economy. The 885.8 billion yuan ($132 billion) in new loans in February was below forecasts and much lower than the 3.23 trillion yuan in new lending in January.”
“China’s automobile sales fell 13.8 percent in February from the same month a year earlier, the country’s biggest auto industry association said on Monday, marking the eighth consecutive month of decline in the world’s largest auto market.
“The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) said sales fell to 1.48 million vehicles. That followed declines of 16 percent in January and 13 percent in December.”
“Downing Street has described the Brexit talks in Brussels as “deadlocked” after negotiations over the weekend failed to find a breakthrough on the Irish backstop.
“Theresa May and Jean-Claude Juncker, the European commission president, spoke on the telephone on Sunday evening, but plans for the prime minister to visit the Belgian capital to sign off on any compromise are on hold.”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/11/brexit-talks-deadlocked-says-downing-street
“February saw the 15 consecutive month of footfall decline, and suffered a deeper plunge than the previous year when footfall was down 0.2 per cent, British Retail Consortium (BRC) and Springboard figures showed.”
http://www.cityam.com/274428/february-retail-footfall-hits-five-year-low
“Beneath the headline figures showing a strong British labour market, the ebb and flow of jobs and businesses being created and destroyed is showing a pattern associated with the onset of recession, research suggested on Monday.”
“German industrial production dropped in January, missing forecasts, and exports were flat, a sign that Europe’s largest economy continues to flounder.
“The Federal Statistical Office, Destatis, said Monday that total industrial output–comprised of output in manufacturing, energy and construction–declined 0.8% from the month before. The outcome misses economists’ forecast of a 0.4% gain.”
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/german-industrial-output-drops-in-january-2019-03-11
“Extraordinary efforts by the U.S. Federal Reserve to foster an economic recovery from the financial crisis through asset purchases and rock-bottom interest rates have provided essential support for the market during its bull run.
“Sweeping corporate tax cuts passed by President Donald Trump fueled market gains for much of 2018, before a steep sell-off starting in September that raised fears the bull run was coming to the end.”
“It wasn’t supposed to be this way. Zero per cent interest rates and trillions of dollars of cash injections were supposed to be a temporary fix, a massive jolt to the heart of capitalism to revive the global economy. The problem is that no-one has figured out how to remove the medicine, how to unwind the stimulus without causing a major downturn and economic chaos.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-11/global-economy-blew-up-interest-rates-reserve-bank/10887958
“Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Sunday the U.S. central bank does “not feel any hurry” to change the level of interest rates again as it watches how a slowing global economy affects local conditions in the United States. Rates are currently “appropriate,” Powell said in a wide-ranging interview with CBS’s 60 Minutes news show in which he called the current rate level “appropriate” and “roughly neutral,” meaning it is neither stimulating or curbing the economy.”
https://www.euronews.com/2019/03/11/powell-fed-not-in-any-hurry-to-change-rates-amid-global-risks
“The US economy has seen the biggest one-month surge in recession risk in three decades as consumers start to buckle under higher credit costs, top economists have warned.
“The probability of a contraction in the US has jumped to 73pc from 24pc in December, a model by UBS has revealed. The sudden surge was driven by a collapse in spending on durable goods such as cars, furniture and kitchen appliances, the “strongest recession predictive power”, it said.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/03/09/us-economy-faces-real-risk-recession/
Read the previous ‘Economy’ thread here and visit my Patreon page here.
