“Beijing will likely take steps to mitigate the impact of the trade war with the U.S. as recent economic indicators from China point to a slowdown, an economist said on Monday.
“”We were calling for some slowdown, but the degree is much more than what we expected,” said Jeff Ng, chief economist for Asia at Continuum Economics, a research firm.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/01/beijing-will-act-on-slowdown-amid-us-china-trade-war-economist.html
“Even if trade tensions between the U.S. and China can quickly be ironed out, Asia is stuck with a much deeper problem: The trade boom of years past may be hard to replicate in years to come.
“If anything, the sputtering export engine will continuously lose torque.”
https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Asia-s-trade-problems-run-deeper-than-tariffs
“Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller warned that dollar-denominated borrowing by emerging markets, like Turkey, Argentina and others, meant they already are facing “a shrinkage of liquidity” as the US central bank raises interest rates.”
“The Philippines’ outstanding debt hit record high of 7.104 trillion pesos (131.498 billion U.S. dollars) in the first eight months of 2018 on the back of high foreign borrowings amid the issuance of yen-dominated debt bonds.”
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-09/29/c_137501917.htm
“Emerging Asia economies that were already under stress amid a Federal Reserve policy-tightening cycle, stronger dollar and global trade tensions are bracing once again for a resurgence in inflation pressures as oil and gas prices tick higher.”
India’s Lehman Bros moment?
“IInfrastructure Leasing & Financial Services (IL&FS) has again defaulted on repaying loans — this time the amount in question is about Rs 2.7 billion — even as it received the shareholders’ nod to raise up to Rs 150 billion through debentures [India].”
“Pakistan raised its key rate to the highest in three years, making it Asia’s most aggressive interest-rate hiker this year as the country’s finances continue to dwindle. The target policy rate was raised for the third straight meeting to 8.5 percent from 7.5 percent, the State Bank of Pakistan said in a statement on Saturday.”
“Turkish manufacturing activity hit its lowest level in nine years in September, contracting for the sixth consecutive month, as output and new orders slowed on the back of a currency crisis, a business survey showed on Monday.”
https://www.nasdaq.com/article/turkish-september-pmi-lowest-level-since-march-2009-20181001-00113
“Increased uptake of commercial loans may plunge the country into a debt crisis, a parliamentary advisory team has warned. The Budget Office, a professional unit within the National Assembly which advises legislators on financial, budgetary and economic matters, is worried the contraction of expensive loans will put pressure on Kenya’s dollar reserves.”
“The President and Chairman of Groupe Ndoum, Dr. Papa Kwesi Ndoum, has called on Ghanaians to have confidence in the country’s financial sector… His comments come at a time when there is a seeming loss of confidence in Ghana’s financial institutions due to the challenges some are presently facing. Seven local banks have collapsed within the last one year, as government moved to sanitize the sector.”
“Timdi, 33, and Douglas are among thousands of African migrants who, after failing to reach Europe in search of a better life, have been flown home from North Africa by the International Organization for Migration (IOM), with funding from the European Union… seven to 10 months after going home to Cameroon, returning migrants interviewed by the Thomson Reuters Foundation are struggling to get their lives back on track. Many are battling alone the trauma of the torture, sexual violence and slavery they endured in Libya.”
“It would be an understatement to say that the Argentine economy finds itself once again in very serious trouble despite record International Monetary Fund (IMF) support. In the three months since announcing a $50 billion IMF stabilization program in June 2018, the Argentine peso has managed to lose around a further third of its value. This has contributed to a renewed spike in inflation to over 40 percent and to ever-increasing signs that the Argentine economy is yet again succumbing to a serious economic recession.”
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/408943-argentinas-ongoing-crisis-exposes-flawed-economic-myths
“Hundreds of thousands of Brazilians rallied for and against controversial front-runner Jair Bolsonaro ahead of next week’s presidential elections, in what some analysts called a worrying sign of society’s deep divisions. Much of the country is now polarized between the corruption-racked leftist Workers’ Party and former army captain Mr. Bolsonaro, who is known for his offensive comments about women and gay people.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/massive-election-rallies-reflect-deep-divisions-in-brazil-1538335168
“Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil’s firebrand right-wing presidential candidate, said on Friday that he would not accept the outcome of next month’s election if he loses, as polls suggest he will. “From what I see in the streets, I won’t accept any result that is not my election,” the populist politician told Brazilian broadcaster TV Band.”
“Let there be no doubt, the budget that the Italian government is about to pass is a remarkable act of economic self-harm. It could take a long time to repair… Italy’s public debt stands at more than 130 percent of GDP — the largest in the euro zone after Greece. For the past few years, Italy has benefited from ultra-low interest rates thanks to the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing. The ECB is now pulling back from net purchases…”
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-09-29/italy-s-extraordinary-act-of-self-harm
“Italy’s powerful deputy prime minister Matteo Salvini said Saturday “I do not care” if the European Commission rejects a budget plan that would worsen Rome’s already mammoth debt burden. “No one in Brussels can tell me it is not time,” the head of the far-right League party told a meeting in the Italian capital. “If Brussels says I cannot do it, I do not care, I will do it anyway,” the outspoken leader vowed.”
https://www.thelocal.it/20180930/defiant-salvini-i-dont-care-if-eu-rejects-budget
“Uncertainties over Brexit are causing business activity and optimism levels in the financial industry to fall sharply. A survey of 100 leading financial firms found a “widespread” deterioration in sentiment, with investment managers reporting a “striking loss of momentum” since the start of the year. Profits tumbled in several sectors, with investment managers reporting the steepest drop since the financial crisis…”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-jitters-hit-confidence-in-finance-sector-lf836vltv
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