Nice overview of recent developments:
“Officials gathering for Group of 20 meetings in Buenos Aires this weekend will have plenty more crisis fodder than Lionel Messi’s World Cup performance to gab about.
“We heard growing fears this week that a downturn might be brewing from various corners of the global economy, while central bankers find their place in the policy tightening cycle and trade battles rage on…”
https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/2018/07/19/global-economy-lives-on-the-edge-as-crisis-veterans-sound-alarms
Find myself agreeing with Trump here: “U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday criticized Federal Reserve policy even though most economists believe the highest inflation in seven years and lowest unemployment in 40 years justify recent interest rate rises and a strong U.S. dollar. Trump said he was concerned about the potential impact on the U.S. economy and American corporate competitiveness from rising rates and a stronger dollar.”
“The current bull market in stocks is a month or so away from becoming the longest in history. If it happens, then what? …a growing number of experts are questioning whether the stock market’s run will keep going through 2019 and beyond. The big threat now is the potential for a punishing trade war, as the United States squabbles with allies and rivals alike on tariffs. That could squeeze earnings and economic growth around the world. Beyond that, several firmer warning signals for the market are flashing yellow.”
“”You’re probably looking at 30 days.” That’s how long it would take before production “grinds to a halt” at automotive assembly plants, parts manufacturers, and other industry businesses on both sides of the [Canda/US] border if U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposed 25 per cent tariffs on all imported vehicles comes to be.”
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/windsor/auto-tariffs-bad-for-both-sides-says-auto-expert-1.4753098
“In the second quarter emerging markets currencies had their worst fall in seven years. July started better, but the downward pressure is back on a steady course of interest rate tightening in the US. This attracts capital to the dollar. Equity investors have been pulling money out of emerging markets for 10 weeks straight. So have bond investors…”
https://www.ft.com/content/0081b722-8b3e-11e8-bf9e-8771d5404543
“Nicaragua’s economy is tanking as the violent chaos engulfing the nation paralyzes business activity. Police and pro-government paramilitary forces fired on government opponents hiding behind barricades and on university campuses this week, and besieged protesters who’d taken refuge in a church, as the clashes showed no sign of waning after three months.”
“Brazil’s oil regulator ANP said on Thursday it would not establish a minimum frequency for fuel price adjustments, after a nationwide truckers’ protest over rising diesel prices in May cast a spotlight on the issue… The crisis renewed a national debate over whether fuel prices should reflect rising international oil costs and shore up the finances of state-run oil giant Petrobras or protect Brazilians still hurting from the worst economic crisis in a generation.”
“Sudan’s inflation rose to 63.87 percent year-on-year in June, from 60.93 percent in May, the state statistics agency said on Thursday, as the dollar-starved country grapples with an economic crisis.”
“Tansu Çiller, a former prime minister of Turkey, warned of a crisis in the corporate sector after some large companies began talks with banks to restructure their loans. “I see a very serious expectation of a crisis in the private sector,” Çiller said , according to Turkish columnist Abdulkadir Selvi.”
https://ahvalnews.com/turkey-economy/former-turkish-prime-minister-warns-serious-crisis-risk
“Russian ownership of US Treasury bonds dropped from $96.1 billion in March to an 11-year low of $14.9 billion in May, the latest Treasury figures show… Elvira Nabiullina, the head of the Central Bank of Russia, reportedly said cutting the stake was the result of an assessment of financial, economic, and geopolitical risks. Russia has been buying gold as it sells off US bonds, recently overtaking China as the world’s biggest holder of gold, with $80.5 billion worth.”
http://uk.businessinsider.com/russia-sells-us-treasuries-debt-2018-7
“Chinese companies are facing a reality check after years of ramping up debt. The deleveraging campaign that President Xi Jinping began in 2016 to curb risks in the nation’s financial markets has cracked down on shadow financing and tightened rules on asset management. As a result, firms are having a tough time raising new funds to repay existing debt, leading to a record amount of bond defaults this year.”
“A policy debate in China on how best to address slowing growth deepened on Friday, as analysts urged authorities to boost fiscal stimulus amid rising risks to the world’s second-biggest economy from a bitter trade conflict with the United States.”
“North Korea’s economic trajectory has u-turned from surprisingly strong growth in 2016 to a sharp contraction last year — and worse is yet to come. Estimates from South Korea’s central bank show gross domestic product in the North contracted 3.5 percent in the 12 months through December, the biggest drop in two decades.”
“Britain crashing out of the EU without a deal would inflict significant economic pain across Europe, leaving the region without any winners, the International Monetary Fund has warned.”
“Some of the eurozone’s banking systems, notably Italy’s, remain weak thanks to high levels of non-performing loans. Throughout the region, banks’ profits have been weaker than before the financial crisis. The [IMF] described debt burdens in some member states as “heavy…””
https://www.ft.com/content/e1bb4d26-8b56-11e8-bf9e-8771d5404543
“Hedge funds enjoyed their worst first half performance since 2000, according to a new report.”
http://www.funds-europe.com/news/hedge-funds-record-weakest-h1-performance-for-18-years
“When Arthur Andersen collapsed after becoming entangled in the Enron scandal in 2002, the US accounting firm was written off by many in the audit profession as an outlier… But a steady stream of damaging news involving the accounting giant KPMG over the past 12 months has regulators, competitors and clients once again posing hard questions about the strength of one of the world’s biggest audit firms.”
https://www.ft.com/content/f660b6a2-8b75-11e8-bf9e-8771d5404543
