“Could it be that Europe is facing yet another existential crisis, six years after financial meltdown threatened the eurozone’s collapse?
“This week the third- and fourth-largest economies in the eurozone — Italy and Spain — experienced political earthquakes. Italy will now have a government of insurgents with little faith in the “European project.” Spain will have and odd coalition united only in ousting the unpopular conservative Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy. Spanish voters likely face their third election in three years.
“Back in 2012, Europe had its “PIGS” problem (Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Spain): toxic banks, overwhelming debt and chronic budget deficits. Now it has the “PHIGS” of 2018: Poland, Hungary, Italy, Greece and Spain.
“Today the challenges are more complex and diverse — but they have common roots in a growing popular disenchantment with the political mainstream.”
“…the long-term costs of remaining in a club [the Euro] dominated by inherently deflationary, German-dictated rules might tempt Italians to leave. That decision could come in the midst of another global financial crisis, recession, or asymmetric shock that pushes several fragile countries out of the euro at the same time.”
“A run on government bonds is particularly dangerous. Bonds are loans — IOUs — and Italy’s debts are gigantic: they amount to almost a third more than Italians produce in a year. So there are vast quantities of Italian government bonds in circulation, many held in banks. If their value falls, it can trigger a financial crisis that extends far beyond Italy’s borders.”
“German Chancellor Angela Merkel has ruled out debt relief for Italy.”
“”The good times for illegals is over — get ready to pack your bags,” he [Italy’s new Interior Minister] said Saturday at a rally in Italy’s north.”
“At least 47 people died and 68 others were rescued after their migrant boat sank off Tunisia’s southern coast, according to the country’s defence ministry.”
“”[Greek] Banks have no room for complacency, because the NPL [non-performing loan] rate has to go further down,” he added.”
“In the eight years since London began sharply curtailing support for local governments, the borough of Knowsley, a bedroom community of Liverpool, has seen its budget cut roughly in half.”
“If the US barriers continue to cause friction while at the same time achieving results, the dollar will continue to become stronger, and bring a potential crisis in emerging countries – namely the problem of high debt – to the surface. This is a problem of great concern.”
“A crisis that has hit some emerging markets risks spreading through the world economy, according to a global investment trade body. Many countries are increasingly vulnerable to economic shocks following the debt sell-off which has hit Argentina and Turkey.”
“In 2017, the largest exodus of millionaires from a nation came out of Turkey at a staggering 12 percent, signalling a looming financial crisis headed for Turkey , writes Ruchir Sharma in an article he penned for the New York Times.”
“Turkish inflation hit its highest level since November following a slump in the national currency’s value.”
“This is the eighth upward revision on petrol, diesel and kerosene prices, and third on aviation fuel [in Nepal] in the last six months.”
“”It’s not easy to ensure the macro-economy is stable and the inflation rate is below 4 percent when the oil prices in the global market are soaring,” Phuc told a government meeting.”
“Philippine inflation likely accelerated for the fifth straight month in May, a Reuters poll showed.”
““It is hard to put a precise time frame on when China will start to see the deleveraging of the real economy, but at some point it looks inevitable,” said Brian Coulton, chief economist at Fitch. “The scenario analysis we have undertaken suggests that, when it does occur, it will be a process that will be a significant drag on growth.””